Discrepancies in Oil Flow Data from the Strait of Hormuz

<p>The White House is in disagreement with some private sector analysts regarding the volume of oil exiting the Strait of Hormuz, with clarity on the situation expected in the coming weeks.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>The volume of oil that passes through this waterway influences gasoline prices and other consumer goods.</p><hr /><ul><li>The White House is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/28/trump-iran-hormuz-war-oil" target="_blank">asserting success</a> in reopening the critical energy chokepoint, which previously handled 20 million barrels of crude and oil products daily before the Iran conflict.</li><li>The outcome may become clearer as the fall election campaigns intensify.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>President Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/117206799377569441" target="_blank">stated</a> yesterday that 18 million barrels per day are currently being transported, claiming via Truth Social that "Hormuz Volumes are BACK." </p><ul><li>Energy Secretary Chris Wright <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/energy-secretary-chris-wright-tells-cnbc-that-more-than-17-million-barrels-of-oil-transited-hormuz-on-monday.html" target="_blank">reported to CNBC</a> on Tuesday that 17 million barrels of crude and products flowed on Monday, but also noted that the multi-day rolling average is significantly lower.</li></ul><p><strong>What we're watching:</strong> Currently, there is insufficient information to determine the exact volume of oil movements, but more data is expected to emerge that will provide a clearer picture.</p><ul><li>Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, stated via email, "We will know the truth or closer to it in a few weeks. If all that oil came out, it has to go somewhere and eventually it will be recorded." </li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue: </strong>Tanker tracking services have reported lower oil volumes than some claims from the administration in recent weeks.</p><ul><li>However, counting barrels is complex, particularly during wartime. Many tankers are disabling their "automatic identification system" transponders and employing other <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-maneuver-is-boosting-oil-shipments-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-070d8fa3" target="_blank">methods</a> to transport oil.</li><li>This complicates the efforts of market intelligence firms, which rely on various information sources, including satellite imagery and cargo loading data.</li><li>Port and customs data from oil-importing countries, along with their crude stockpile sizes, will help supplement outbound data estimates, though it takes time for tankers to reach major importers.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying: </strong>An Energy Department spokesperson stated via email, "In coordination with the U.S. military, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian Gulf." </p><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Analysts suggest that the 17 million barrels claimed by Wright may be accurate for a single day, but the multi-day average is more significant.</p><ul><li>Wright indicated earlier this week that flows have been averaging around 8 million barrels per day, <a href="https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_holds_above_90_as_fighting_flares-02-sep-2026-184524-article" target="_blank">according to Bloomberg</a>.</li><li>The Energy Department spokesperson informed Axios that on Wednesday, nearly 12 million barrels of oil and oil products were reported to have moved through the strait.</li></ul><p><strong>My thought bubble:</strong> While <a href="https://x.com/gbrew24/status/2095536013716193614" target="_blank">analysts</a> express <a href="https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2095526217529049408" target="_blank">skepticism</a> regarding some of the administration's claims, there appears to be a general consensus between some private sector trackers and the Energy Department's multi-day average figures.</p><p><strong>State of play:</strong> Comparing data accurately is challenging, as it depends on the time frame and the specific metrics being counted.</p><ul><li>Data from Vortexa, a commodity tracking and intelligence firm, indicates a 28-day moving average of approximately 8 million barrels of crude and products as of August 31, according to senior analyst Rohit Rathod.</li><li>Tanker Trackers reported on Wednesday that preliminary data shows crude transit has risen to an average of 5.94 million barrels per day over the past week.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, stated that it appears more oil is indeed being transported, though likely not to the extent claimed by the Trump administration.</p><ul><li>Brew added via email, "But it's enough to give Trump the idea that time is on his side, and that the U.S. has the upper hand over the Iranians."</li></ul>