Analysts indicate that while Zack Polanski and the Green Party have shown strong performance this year, unseating Labour in its traditional stronghold may be challenging. Keir Starmer, the former Prime Minister, resigned as the member of parliament for Holborn and St Pancras this week, ending over a decade of Labour representation since the seat's establishment in 1983. The upcoming by-election, expected later this year, has garnered significant attention. Polanski, the Green Party leader, announced on Thursday his intention to seek nomination for the seat, pending selection by local party members.
Starmer secured 48.9 percent of the vote in 2024, with the Greens finishing third at 10.4 percent, behind independent candidate Andrew Feinstein. However, in the Camden council elections in May, the Greens achieved 28.8 percent of the vote compared to Labour's 38.8 percent, marking their first seat gains in Starmer's constituency. Al Jazeera consulted political scientists and election analysts regarding Polanski's potential path to Westminster.
Since Polanski's leadership began a year ago, the Green Party has made strides in attracting support from Labour's left, including a notable by-election win in Greater Manchester and current national polling as high as 20 percent. Despite these achievements, experts caution that Holborn and St Pancras remains a strong Labour seat. Jonathan Tonge, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, stated that a Green victory would be unexpected. He noted that the current Prime Minister and Labour leader, Andy Burnham, would need to experience a decline in popularity for the Greens to have a chance.
The timing of the by-election is also critical. If Burnham performs well at the Labour party conference in Liverpool later this month, his popularity may continue until the budget announcement on October 28. Burnham, who has been in office for nine years as mayor of Greater Manchester, is viewed positively by many Britons, with a YouGov survey indicating 46 percent have a favorable opinion of him.
Polanski's critics argue that he may appear as an outsider, though he claims to have lived and worked in the area for years. He expressed his excitement about the possibility of representing the community in Parliament. However, Tonge noted that some voters may view Polanski as too left-wing and prefer the more established Labour option.
The so-called "Burnham bounce" may also hinder Polanski's chances. Additionally, Polanski's political history could be a disadvantage; he previously ran in the constituency as a Liberal Democrat in 2015, receiving only 96 votes. Earlier this year, he had to apologize for a council tax issue related to his houseboat, and he admitted to not voting in May's local election due to moving and not registering in time.
The Green Party has historically struggled in this area, having only one MP from 2010 to 2024. This changed in February when they won a by-election in Gorton and Denton, achieving 40.7 percent of the vote in a Labour-held area since 1931. In May, the Greens increased their council seats across London from 18 to 279, winning six boroughs and their first directly elected mayors in Hackney and Lewisham, while Labour faced its worst local results in London since 1968. Nationally, the Greens secured 587 seats, their highest total ever.
Despite this momentum, Tonge suggested that the Greens may have peaked. McTernan cautioned that Polanski should not conflate the party's successes with his own popularity, as they may reflect broader dissatisfaction with Starmer. A YouGov survey from August showed that only 19 percent of Britons have a favorable opinion of Polanski, a decline from April. McTernan warned that Polanski's candidacy could backfire, as by-elections often penalize candidates perceived as self-serving. He referenced the Clacton by-election, where a novelty candidate received a significant share of the vote amid the main parties' absence.