The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is positioned to potentially win an absolute majority in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament during the state election on September 6, 2026. The outcome will depend on whether other parties can surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This election has garnered significant media attention, as it could mark the first time a far-right party leads a state government in post-World War II Germany.
Currently, the AfD is polling above 40%, with lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund aiming for a historic victory. The Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt classified the AfD as a far-right party in 2023. Other parties likely to gain seats include the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by current State Premier Sven Schulze, and the socialist Left Party, which has a strong presence in eastern Germany.
Concerns exist for several parties regarding their ability to meet the 5% threshold. The center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are polling below the 8% they received in the previous election, while the Free Democrats (FDP) are at approximately 3%. The environmentalist Greens also face challenges in rural areas due to their climate policies.
The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is participating in its first state election, having previously failed to gain entry into parliament. Political scientist Oliver Lembcke noted that the BSW's polling under 5% indicates a precarious position for the party. Should the BSW gain representation, Wagenknecht has stated that her party would abstain from voting for an AfD premier, potentially allowing the AfD to secure a majority.
The dynamics of the election could lead to a situation where the AfD governs alone if smaller parties fail to gain seats. Conversely, if the CDU, Left Party, and SPD collectively hold more seats than the AfD, coalition-building may be complicated due to the CDU's 2018 resolution rejecting cooperation with the AfD and Left Party. The Left Party has expressed willingness to support Premier Schulze for a second term to inhibit the AfD's influence.
As the election approaches, the potential for either a challenging coalition process or an AfD-led government remains a focal point of discussion.