The U.S. military is experiencing a significant reduction in its inventory of advanced defensive missiles, specifically the Patriot and THAAD interceptors, which protect American troops. According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), from February 28 to July, U.S. forces utilized nearly 60% of these missiles during the initial months of the war with Iraq. The Pentagon's inventory of nearly 2,800 missiles at the start of the conflict has decreased to approximately 1,100 by the end of July, with almost two-thirds of the Patriots and nearly 40% of the THAAD missiles expended.
Tom Karako, director of CSIS’s Missile Defense Project, described this depletion as a "generational annihilation of our theater missile defense capability," indicating a significant setback. While the White House and Pentagon have not disputed the CSIS figures, they have denied any claims of a shortage. President Trump stated in July that the U.S. has more munitions than any other nation, although this assertion is seen as misleading since the military's stock of advanced defensive missiles is not abundant.
The situation has led U.S. commanders to conserve these interceptors as they are now considered scarce assets. For instance, during a de facto ceasefire in August, U.S. forces refrained from deploying high-end missiles in response to Iranian attacks on oil tankers. However, when Iran launched rockets at U.S. bases in Jordan recently, Patriots were reportedly deployed to intercept those missiles, although the Pentagon has not confirmed this.
Concerns have been raised about the U.S. military's ability to deter potential attacks from China and Russia. The Council on Foreign Relations warned that the current missile stockpile lacks the capacity to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and the Heritage Foundation predicted that the Pentagon’s inventory could be depleted within the first week of a conflict over Taiwan. A U.S. defense official described the missile shortfall in Europe as "beyond critical," emphasizing that U.S. forces would face severe challenges if Russia attacked a NATO country.
Leon Panetta, former defense secretary under President Obama, highlighted the importance of maintaining a credible deterrent, stating that the U.S. is losing credibility in this regard, which poses a danger. The missile shortage has roots that predate the current conflict, with defense experts noting that the U.S. military's missile defense programs were designed for a world with fewer major threats.
To address the shortage, the U.S. needs to increase missile production, a process that has already been initiated by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, current production rates are insufficient to quickly replenish the stockpile; it is estimated that it will take at least three years to restore the Patriot inventory and four years for THAAD. Experts suggest that the stockpiles need to be larger than pre-war levels to effectively deter adversaries.
The Pentagon has sufficient munitions to continue operations against Iran, but many of these are less sophisticated and have limited range, increasing the risk to troops. The CSIS figures are based on publicly available Pentagon budget documents and press reports, not classified leaks.
The missile shortage is attributed to a combination of factors, including the belief that Iran would capitulate quickly and the changing landscape of military technology, where missiles and drones are more accessible to various nations. The Trump administration faces the challenge of replenishing advanced missile stocks while also developing cost-effective missile and drone systems to fill the gap before inventories can be restored. The Pentagon has begun deploying less expensive anti-drone systems, and a funding bill from last year allocated $7.7 billion for low-cost missile and drone programs, although much of this funding remains unspent.