Europe has recently opened a carbon capture and storage (CCS) plant, claimed to be the largest in the continent. However, global climate models indicate that significantly more capacity is needed than currently exists. The United Nations' climate science body estimates that between 350 to 1,200 gigatons of CO2 storage will be necessary within the century to mitigate severe climate change effects. CCS technology aims to capture carbon dioxide emissions from concentrated sources such as smokestacks or ammonia factories. The captured CO2 is then compressed and transported for geological storage in locations like aquifers or old oil reservoirs.
CCS is distinct from carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which focuses on extracting CO2 from the atmosphere after it has been emitted. Wil Burns, co-director of the Institute for Carbon Removal Law & Policy at American University, emphasized the need for both CCS and CDR technologies to address existing emissions. He stated, "We just have to figure out how to use them thoughtfully and still keep our eye on the prize of decarbonizing."
The feasibility of CCS and CDR is debated among scientists and climate advocates. Proponents argue that the primary challenge is constructing more plants, which would require government subsidies and policy support. Experts suggest that without government intervention, it is unlikely that investors will fund these costly commercial projects, especially given the decreasing costs of renewable energy.
Susan Hovorka, a geoscientist at the University of Texas-Austin, noted, "It's ready to go, technologically. We know how to do this process." CCS technology has its origins in the 1960s when oil companies began using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The first large-scale CCS project aimed at reducing emissions began in Norway in 1996. As of 2020, there were 26 operational commercial CCS facilities globally, a number that has since nearly tripled.
However, some experts argue that the technology is still in its early stages, with real-world applications lagging behind technical capabilities. Danny Cullenward, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania's Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, stated, "What is not well-established and basically doesn't exist at scale is the commercial experience doing this."
Recent research from the University of Texas-Austin indicated that many large-scale CCS initiatives are injecting significantly less CO2 than anticipated. A study revised previous estimates of Earth's CO2 storage capacity down to approximately 1,460 gigatons, suggesting that many CCS-dependent climate scenarios may exceed this limit within the next 250 years.
Yara, a European fertilizer company, is set to open what it describes as Europe's largest carbon capture project, which will capture 800,000 metric tons of CO2 annually. To meet the lower end of the UN's climate scenario threshold of 350 gigatons, approximately 5,800 similar plants would need to be operational immediately. The International Energy Agency projects that 7.6 gigatons of carbon will need to be captured annually by 2050, while the current capacity of the world's 77 operating plants is only 64 million tons, necessitating a 119-fold increase in capacity.
Cullenward remarked, "The scale of what's being called for in those scenarios is astronomically beyond any real activity that exists today." He criticized climate models for underestimating renewable energy potential and over-relying on emerging technologies. He explained that models typically have three strategies to meet climate targets: increasing renewable energy, reducing energy consumption, or relying on new technologies.
There is ongoing debate regarding whether CCS is a genuine solution for decarbonization or a strategy used by oil and gas companies to justify continued fossil fuel extraction. Research indicates that about 80% of the world's CCS capacity is currently utilized for enhanced oil recovery, which may ultimately increase emissions. Some researchers caution that CCS could create a moral hazard, allowing for riskier behavior due to perceived safety.
Advocates for CCS suggest its use in "hard-to-abate" industries, such as cement production. Cullenward concluded, "I don't think we're going to get to five or 10 or 20 gigatons a year of carbon removal, but we may need to get as much as we can and to me that's a reason to be more engaged rather than less engaged."