There is a growing debate in Pakistan regarding the effectiveness of its four-province system in governing a population of approximately 260 million. Ahsan Iqbal, the minister for planning and development, has called for a national discussion on administrative reform, suggesting the creation of 12 to 15 new provinces or the establishment of 160 empowered district governments to enhance governance and public service delivery.
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who initially proposed an administrative 'reset' in July, stated that any new administrative units should have public support. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has advocated for increased decentralization and devolution of power to local levels. Despite these discussions, no formal decisions have been made regarding the creation of new provinces.
Within the ruling coalition, there is disagreement on the timing and approach to these reforms. Questions remain about whether smaller provinces would improve governance or if direct power devolution to local governments would be more effective. Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister, emphasized that smaller provinces alone would not suffice without empowered local governments to enhance service delivery.
Supporters of new provinces argue that the existing provinces—Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan—are too large and centralized. Iqbal has noted that the current system has not sufficiently improved health, education, and social services. Naqvi has called for an administrative structure that aligns better with the growing population.
Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, pointed out that any proposals for new provinces should consider potential improvements in local tax collection and the costs associated with establishing new provincial institutions. He stressed the importance of assessing whether such changes would enhance justice and public service delivery.
The debate extends beyond the number of provinces to whether smaller administrative units would genuinely make the government more responsive. Creating new provinces could alter the political balance, necessitating new governments and assemblies, which may impact political representation and the allocation of federal resources.
Political resistance has emerged, particularly from Sindh's provincial assembly, which opposes the creation of new provinces or administrative units. Concerns have been raised about the challenges of dividing resources, including finances and natural resources, among newly formed provinces. Ismail has suggested that empowering existing local governments within current boundaries may be a safer approach.
Shoaib noted that Pakistan could learn from other democratic systems that have successfully empowered local governments and navigated the complexities of dividing large states into smaller units. He warned that incomplete divisions could exacerbate ethnic tensions. Ultimately, the debate in Pakistan encompasses more than just the number of provinces; it involves the potential for administrative changes to bring power, resources, and accountability closer to the populace without inciting further political and ethnic tensions.