WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans appeared to have a firm grip on the Senate heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. However, with less than two months until Election Day, control of the chamber is now seen as competitive.
Democrats are contesting in states that previously seemed out of reach as Trump's declining approval ratings and voter dissatisfaction with the economy create challenges for Republicans. Conversely, races that Democrats anticipated winning have also become more complicated.
The total spending across all races during the midterm campaign is expected to exceed $3.4 billion. The implications of the Senate's control are significant for Trump's agenda, including his ability to fill administration positions and judicial vacancies, as the Senate has the authority to confirm or block presidential nominees.
Republicans express skepticism about everything favoring Democrats but acknowledge the challenging environment. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated to South Dakota's KELOLAND News last week that he is concerned about losing the chamber. "I'm a realist," Thune said. "I don't ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it's a competitive environment right now."
Democrats need to gain four seats to secure a majority. Initially, they aimed to hold Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire while reclaiming Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. However, the situation has evolved.
"We now have multiple paths for the majority," Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said last month. "We found new states — Iowa, Texas — which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."
In Michigan, where there is an open Senate seat this fall, no Republican candidate has won a Senate race since 1994. However, Democrats are struggling to unify behind nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly defeated moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, following a costly campaign that saw nearly $70 million spent against him.
Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes, has a stronger chance against El-Sayed. The Senate Leadership Fund, a spending PAC for Senate Republicans, has increased its advertising investment in Michigan to $51 million.
Democrats also saw an opportunity to defeat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, where Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris received more votes than Trump in 2024. After progressive Graham Platner left the race over a sexual assault allegation, Democratic delegates chose Troy Jackson as the nominee. Jackson has since been working to catch up, as Collins and aligned super PACs have spent nearly $80 million, compared to Jackson's $45 million.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is running against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who won the GOP nomination after ousting four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Talarico and allied groups have invested nearly $30 million in advertising, while pro-Paxton groups have spent less than $3 million.
Democrats are also increasing their spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina, all currently held by Republicans. Meanwhile, Republicans are feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire and Michigan, while increasing their defense spending in Iowa and Alaska.
The expanded electoral map has raised the anticipated total spending for this cycle, with AdImpact projecting $3.4 billion in advertising spending on Senate races, a notable increase from the $2.8 billion projected in the fall of 2025.
Trump's declining job approval ratings, particularly regarding economic management, are influencing the political landscape. An AP-NORC poll from July indicated a 32% approval rating for Trump on economic issues, down from 40% in March 2025.
Concerns about rising costs and economic uncertainty have been echoed by Republican representatives. "Things still cost too much. And so we've got to work on that issue," Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio stated.
Even if Democrats maintain all their current seats, they would need to flip at least two seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024 to achieve a majority. Republicans are counting on their advantages to become more significant as Election Day nears, especially as Trump and the party focus on mobilizing voters who supported him in the past.
Trump indicated he would be making numerous campaign stops in the month leading up to the election. This week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas, where Trump is scheduled to speak alongside top Senate candidates including Rogers and Husted.
Republicans acknowledge the challenges ahead. "Politics is local," Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota remarked, highlighting concerns from farmers and ranchers about the administration's policies.
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