On September 8, 2026, the right-wing Alternative for Germany party (AfD) secured nearly 44% of the vote in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, surpassing the center-right Christian Democratic Union by over 25 points. This victory marks the AfD's opportunity to govern a state for the first time since its inception in 2013. The party has been gaining traction in polls across Germany, particularly in the former German Democratic Republic, which was integrated into West Germany following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The ability of other parties to negotiate a coalition to prevent the AfD from assuming power in Saxony-Anhalt remains uncertain, with such negotiations potentially extending for weeks. The prospect of an extremist party, as classified by the German federal government, gaining power has raised concerns across Europe.
In a phone interview, historian Katja Hoyer discussed the factors contributing to the AfD's success, the strategic missteps of establishment parties, and the historical context of East Germany's influence on current political dynamics. Hoyer noted that the AfD's rise has been consistent since around 2017, particularly in the East, where economic dissatisfaction has driven working-class voters towards the party. She compared the situation in East Germany to the Rust Belt in the United States, highlighting similar voting patterns in areas experiencing economic decline.
Hoyer emphasized that the concerns of AfD voters, particularly regarding immigration and economic conditions, were not adequately addressed by traditional parties. She pointed out that the influx of refugees since 2015, initiated by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, created a perception of a lack of control over immigration, which resonated with voters in Saxony-Anhalt. While acknowledging that the German center-right has shifted its stance on immigration, Hoyer argued that voters still seek greater control over who enters the country.
The AfD's positioning as further to the right than other European right-wing movements was also discussed. Hoyer noted that the party's emphasis on ethnic definitions of Germanness and its extreme rhetoric have led to distancing from other far-right parties in Europe, including those in France. The conversation concluded with reflections on the potential for mainstream parties to adapt their strategies in response to the AfD's growing influence, suggesting that credible leadership and a reevaluation of past policies could be necessary for regaining voter trust.