China's diplomatic calendar in 2026 reflects its increasing international influence, with visits from leaders of various countries, including the United States, Russia, and several Gulf states. The recent visit by Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani to China, along with visits from officials from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, indicates China's expanding role in the Gulf region.
Traditionally aligned with the US, the Gulf is experiencing growing competition between the two powers. However, this rivalry does not imply that China is attempting to replace the US. Instead, China is engaging with the region through trade and technology, aligning with the Gulf's economic interests.
The US continues to be the Gulf's primary external military partner, with significant defense partnerships and military presence that contribute to regional security. Washington has historically measured Chinese influence against its military power, but this may not be the appropriate measure of strategic success.
China has shown little interest in competing militarily with the US in the Gulf, benefiting from the security provided by Washington. The US Navy has historically secured maritime routes for Gulf energy exports to Asian markets, contributing to stability that has allowed Chinese companies to operate in the region.
China's strategy focuses on sectors where it can build economic leverage, aiming to become as integral to Gulf economies as the US is to regional security. Chinese state-owned firms have invested in key Gulf infrastructure, such as ports, with COSCO Shipping Ports holding a controlling stake in the CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal at Khalifa Port in the UAE.
Chinese companies are also involved in sectors shaping the region's future, including renewable energy and telecommunications. As these systems become interconnected through trade and investment, disengagement becomes economically costly.
Gulf states are pursuing strong ties with both the US and China, seeking to avoid excessive dependence on either power. Their strategy includes diversification and strategic autonomy in a multipolar international system. The recent US-Israel conflict with Iran has highlighted the importance of this strategy, as dependence on a single actor can create vulnerabilities.
Diversification extends beyond security, with Gulf states aiming to develop economies beyond hydrocarbons. Initiatives in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing are central to their national strategies. The Gulf states are looking for partners who can provide the necessary capital and technology for these diversified economies.
Washington may need to reconsider its measures of strategic power, focusing on the difficulty of removing a country from the regional system rather than just military presence. The US remains embedded in the Gulf through various partnerships, while China is fostering integration through trade and investment.
The US should compete by offering superior technology and deeper industrial partnerships, recognizing that security guarantees alone do not ensure dominance across all sectors.