House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., acknowledged that President Donald Trump’s military actions in Iran and the resulting instability in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to rising prices for Americans. Johnson stated that the situation is unlikely to be resolved before the upcoming midterm elections, which has led Republicans to shift their messaging regarding economic issues. He noted, "Gas prices are too high right now, diesel prices are too high. There’s a very simple reason for it. It’s tied, of course, to the Strait of Hormuz. We have got to get commerce stabilized in the Strait of Hormuz." Johnson expressed that once the Iranian situation is resolved, prices for gas and groceries should decrease.
Polling data indicates that Republicans are facing economic challenges, with a New York Times/Siena University poll showing that only 38% of likely voters approve of Trump’s job performance. His approval rating on economic issues stands at 39%, while only 28% approve of his handling of the cost of living. The poll also revealed that likely voters now trust Democrats over Republicans on economic issues, with Democrats leading by nearly 9 points on the generic congressional ballot. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., criticized the Iran conflict as a "reckless and costly war of choice" by Trump that has negatively impacted Americans.
Historically, Republicans have been viewed favorably by voters on economic matters, which was a significant factor in past elections. However, recent trends indicate a shift in voter sentiment. Johnson attributed current economic difficulties to the previous administration, stating, "We’re not there yet. It takes a long time to turn the aircraft carrier, the ship of state. We’re pulling out of the most disastrous situation that we inherited after Biden-Harris."
In related economic news, a report from the Congressional Budget Office indicated that the Iran war has contributed to more than one-third of the inflation increase this year. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 5.04%, the highest level since 2007.
On the midterm election front, the Supreme Court recently ruled against Trump and the GOP regarding election-related changes, blocking efforts to exert federal control over mail-in ballots and declining to revive a congressional map in Missouri that would have favored Republicans. Election law experts suggest that the court is cautious about intervening in electoral processes close to elections. Trump characterized these rulings as significant losses for Republicans.