Israel's upcoming general election coincides with the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attacks, with public concerns about security dominating the electoral landscape. Issues such as ultra-Orthodox anger over conscription, an economy affected by conflict, and questions of culpability for the Hamas-led assault are central to voter concerns.
Security issues have been prominent in Israeli public discourse since the onset of the conflict in Gaza, during which over 73,000 Palestinians have been reported killed. The conflict has also involved exchanges of strikes with Houthi rebels in Yemen, bombings in Syria and Lebanon, and joint military actions with the United States against Iran.
Ayala Panievsky, a lecturer in politics and journalism at City St George’s, University of London, stated that national security remains a primary concern for Israeli voters, overshadowing other issues. "Even when certain parties tried to shift the dial and centre on the economy, or any other issue, it didn’t work. It is too existential in a country entangled in war and conflict, and even stronger now, following the trauma of October 7," Panievsky said.
Despite global outrage over the situation in Gaza, some believe Israel has never been more secure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed since the 1990s that Iran was close to achieving nuclear capabilities, yet some analysts now suggest that Iran's military and economic focus is primarily on its conflict with the US.
Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst, noted that while threats from groups like Hamas and Hezbollah persist, they are currently preoccupied with domestic issues. "An objective military assessment would indicate that, overall, Israel is safer after almost three years of war," Bregman said.
However, many Israelis reportedly feel less secure than before the October 7 attacks, as the security and intelligence services have been perceived as fallible. Increased military operations and a more aggressive settler movement in the West Bank have contributed to rising tensions.
Bregman warned that the situation in the West Bank could lead to a third Palestinian Intifada. The two main candidates in the election, Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, continue to frame Israel as both victorious and under threat.
In July, Netanyahu suggested a scenario of ongoing conflict, stating, "If you want to live in the Middle East – and in the world – you must be very strong." He has also claimed to have rewritten the political geography of the Middle East while framing the situation as an existential battle for Israel's survival.
Lev Grinberg, a sociology professor at Ben Gurion University, emphasized that the debate surrounding security is political rather than purely military. He noted that Israeli society is deeply divided between supporters and opponents of the current government.
There has been significant media coverage regarding Netanyahu's alleged prior knowledge of the October 2023 attacks, which both he and the UAE have denied. Netanyahu has faced criticism for not initiating an independent inquiry into his actions leading up to the attacks.
The election is high-stakes for both parties, with Netanyahu potentially facing increased scrutiny if he loses, while the opposition fears a strengthened Netanyahu if he wins. Grinberg remarked that the losing camp will likely feel insecure post-election, contributing to a tense atmosphere for the opposition.