Australia's Population Projections Indicate More Deaths Than Births by 2060s

According to a government report released on September 21, 2026, Australia is projected to experience more deaths than births by the 2060s. The Intergenerational Report from Australia’s Treasury forecasts that the country's population will reach 39.3 million by 2065-66, which is 1.8 million lower than previously projected in 2023. The Treasury anticipates an average annual population growth rate of 0.9 percent over the next four decades, a decrease from the 1.4 percent growth rate of the past 40 years. The number of Australians aged 85 or older is expected to triple by 2065-66, with immigration being the sole contributor to population growth as the fertility rate declines to 1.34. Despite the falling birth rates, the Treasury expects the economy to more than double in size by the mid-2060s, attributing this growth to productivity gains from artificial intelligence and increased workforce participation among women and older Australians. Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged the serious risks posed by the demographic shift but noted that Australia is better prepared to manage these changes compared to other countries. The report highlights that Australia’s economic growth heavily relies on migration-driven population growth, which is challenged by declining living standards amid a long-term slowdown in labor productivity. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the 20-year average for annual productivity growth fell to 0.8 percent in 2023-24, down from 1.8 percent in 2003-04. The Business Council of Australia expressed skepticism regarding the government’s economic outlook, stating that it cannot be assumed that long-term productivity growth will rise to 1.2 percent due to AI advancements. The council noted that real GDP per person is nearly $2,000 lower than expected based on the 2023 forecast, attributing this to weak productivity growth. Business Council Chief Executive Bran Black emphasized that Australians are already experiencing the consequences of stagnant productivity through lower living standards. Tim Robinson, a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, commented on the uncertainty surrounding the potential productivity gains from AI, stating that without improvements in productivity, the Australian economy may struggle to grow without encountering inflation issues.