<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sometimes referred to as “the magician” for his ability to secure electoral victories. This reputation will be tested next month when Israel holds elections for the Knesset, where Netanyahu's bloc is competing against an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff. Netanyahu faces accusations related to the October 7, 2023, attacks, opposition to his judicial reforms, and a corruption trial, while smaller parties in his coalition have threatened to withdraw support.</p>
<p>The October 27 ballot is shaping up to be a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that Netanyahu's long tenure has led to frustration among voters. “It’s a tight one for him. It’s tighter than I think anything that he’s experienced since the 2021 election that unseated him for a year,” Schanzer stated.</p>
<p>The Knesset, unlike the two-party system in the United States, consists of various parties that often form coalitions. Netanyahu leads the Likud party, which has allied with right-wing groups, including Zionist settler parties that advocate for settlement expansion in the West Bank. This stance is unpopular internationally and politically sensitive domestically.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has also relied on support from ultra-Orthodox parties, which traditionally seek exemptions from military service. However, a significant majority of Israeli voters oppose these exemptions, leading to tensions within his coalition.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has been accused of being indirectly responsible for the October 7 attacks, which have become central to voter decision-making. An opinion poll from the Israel Democracy Institute indicated that many voters consider these events crucial in their electoral choices. Schanzer emphasized that the election is a referendum on Netanyahu's handling of the attacks.</p>
<p>Additionally, Netanyahu is embroiled in a corruption trial involving allegations of fraud and bribery, which he has dismissed as a “witch hunt.” The relationship between the U.S. and Israel has also cooled, with a Pew Research Center study showing a decline in favorable views of Israel among American voters.</p>
<p>Netanyahu's opposition is fragmented, with various parties lacking a unified front. Eisenkot, leading the centrist Yashar party, is positioning himself as a viable alternative, but the opposition's disunity may benefit Netanyahu. Current polling shows both Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s blocs closely matched, with neither likely to secure a majority without cooperation from Arab parties.</p>
<p>If no bloc achieves a 61-seat majority after the elections, it could result in Netanyahu remaining as a caretaker prime minister, potentially leading to another election.</p>