WASHINGTON — As Republicans contend with President Trump’s low approval ratings, Democrats are attempting to capitalize on this situation to gain control of the U.S. Senate in the November 3 midterm elections. Polls indicate that Trump’s approval rating has consistently remained below 40%, amidst ongoing concerns regarding the Iran war and economic anxiety among voters.
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, with 35 seats up for election in November. Polling data suggests that eight Senate seats — six currently held by Republicans — are competitive. Democrats need to win at least four of these seats while retaining two contested seats they currently hold to flip the chamber.
Five key races are particularly close, with some polls showing Democrats performing better than expected. However, many voters remain undecided, leading the Cook Political Report to classify these races as toss-ups. Here’s an overview of the key contests:
In a prominent race, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers for the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. El-Sayed, who aligns with the progressive wing of the party, narrowly defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary and is seeking to unite her supporters and attract disaffected Republican voters.
Rogers is focusing on independents and Jewish Democrats who may view El-Sayed’s stance on military funding for Israel as concerning. A CNN/SSRS poll from September 9 shows El-Sayed leading Rogers 47% to 44%, within the margin of error. Notably, 26% of respondents remain undecided.
The race has seen personal attacks, including anti-Muslim rhetoric. Republican groups, such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, have portrayed El-Sayed as a supporter of terrorism through ads and AI-generated images. Members of the Trump administration have also referred to him by his full name, Abdulrahman Mohamad El-Sayed, during speeches.
Rogers has highlighted a campaign event hosted by El-Sayed that featured Hasan Piker, a political commentator known for controversial remarks. El-Sayed has criticized Rogers for not debating and for his endorsement by Trump. El-Sayed appeared alone on the Fox 2 Detroit debate stage after Rogers declined an invitation, referring to him as “Mike Dodgers.” The candidates have agreed to debate on October 8 and 21.
In Texas, State Rep. James Talarico aims to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate since 1993, facing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has Trump's endorsement. A Mason-Dixon Research poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 46% to 43%, while other polls indicate a tighter race. Talarico has emphasized Paxton’s controversies, including his impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 over allegations of bribery and misuse of office, which Paxton denies.
Republican political action committees have launched attack ads against Talarico, focusing on his past support for transgender youth and questioning his faith.
In Maine, six-term incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking reelection against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, who was selected to replace Graham Platner after he withdrew due to misconduct allegations. Jackson is campaigning on issues like Medicare for All and increased taxes for billionaires, while Collins highlights her record and her votes against Trump’s initiatives.
Recent polling shows Jackson narrowly leading Collins 46% to 44%, with 9% undecided.
In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan are leading in a ranked-choice voting scenario. Alaska has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, presenting a challenge for Peltola. A late July poll showed her leading by six points, while a more recent poll indicated the race is very close.
In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are in a competitive race, with polls showing mixed results. Hinson has faced criticism for her past campaign statements about stock trading, while Turek has been called out for his voting record in the state legislature.
The outcomes of these races will be crucial in determining the balance of power in the Senate following the midterm elections.