The United Nations General Assembly this week features a highly anticipated meeting between former President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting will occur at the White House, with Trump scheduled to welcome Xi at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday, September 23. This gesture is notable as it is uncommon for US presidents to greet foreign leaders at the airport.
Prior to the summit, a US delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is meeting with He Lifeng, China's Vice Premier, to establish the agenda. Topics expected to be discussed include the ongoing trade conflict, supply chain issues, technological competition, and the situation regarding Taiwan, amid concerns related to US military involvement in the Middle East.
The trade agreement resulting from the previous meeting in Busan is set to expire on November 10. Both nations must decide whether to extend this agreement, which had previously reduced tariff threats and paused port fees. The leaders may also discuss setting purchase targets for key trade items such as agricultural products, energy, and Boeing aircraft, as well as negotiations on a package worth approximately $30 billion in non-sensitive goods.
A significant aspect of the Busan agreement was the lifting of China's export limits on rare earths and minerals, which are crucial for various industries, including automotive, defense, and technology sectors, particularly for AI hardware. The US is looking for a more stable supply of these materials, while China has leveraged its market position in the ongoing trade discussions.
AI safety is also expected to be a topic of discussion, with business leaders expressing mixed views on the desired outcomes. China is seeking to ease restrictions on its technologies, while there are concerns in the US about being outpaced by China in AI development. The discussions on AI are intertwined with trade negotiations regarding export controls on computer chips and related materials.
The trade talks are complicated by each country's geopolitical concerns. China has indicated it may withdraw from the summit if the US proceeds with new arms sales to Taiwan. Additionally, the countries are likely to discuss China's economic relations with Iran and the status of detained foreign nationals. Both sides are expected to navigate these discussions carefully to avoid losing influence, making significant changes unlikely.
Washington aims for increased access to Chinese markets and products, while Beijing seeks relief from tariffs and restrictions. Both countries possess leverage in various global contexts, including Africa and Latin America, while attempting to manage tensions related to Taiwan and other geopolitical issues.
The previous meeting in Beijing was characterized by symbolic gestures, with few concessions made. Anna Ashton, a China trade analyst, commented on the upcoming summit, stating, "I think there will be some show of deliverables because of the fact that it's a presidential summit coming, but I don't feel like we're on the verge of some sort of breakthrough. I think status quo is probably both sides' general best expectation."