<p>A large coalition of rebel groups has launched coordinated offensives against Ethiopia's central government, marking a return to all-out war after four years of relative calm. The conflict has been fueled by the differing objectives of ethnic political factions and the centralizing efforts of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.</p>
<p>The ongoing tensions escalated into one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century in 2020, when federal forces attempted to regain control of the Tigray region, resulting in an estimated 600,000 deaths before a ceasefire was reached two years later.</p>
<p>Since the ceasefire, alliances among various factions have shifted, and peace has remained elusive. The federal government is currently engaged in multiple conflicts with various insurgent groups, including former allies.</p>
<p>On Sunday, seven rebel groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aimed at ousting the current government. This alliance includes ethnic militias from Ethiopia's three largest ethnic groups, which have previously operated independently against the government.</p>
<p>On Wednesday, forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) initiated a significant offensive, capturing three airports and attacking federal troops in several provinces, sometimes in coordination with Amhara Fano rebels, who were previously adversaries during the Tigray war.</p>
<p>The TPLF declared that a new war had commenced, stating, “The Tigray Forces have been instructed to counter the attack and have entered a defensive war.” While the TPLF claims the offensive was a response to federal aggression, most reports attribute the initiation of hostilities to the Tigray forces.</p>
<p>Four sources confirmed to Reuters that fighting has erupted in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions, which have been hotspots of unrest. The EPFAS claimed that all its members engaged in offensives, although this has not been independently verified.</p>
<p>U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Ervin Massinga condemned the offensive, cautioning other rebel groups against involvement. He stated, “I am disappointed to see the leadership of the TPLF, that the United States sanctioned earlier this year, make the poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive today. Rejecting dialogue sponsored by the African Union under President Obasanjo and engaging in an unwinnable fight does nothing for the people. Other armed groups would be wise to avoid this.”</p>
<p>Massinga emphasized the importance of political dialogue, stating, “While the U.S. has tools to sanction additional leaders who try to push Ethiopia down the wrong path, I still believe a reasonable political dialogue is the right way to go.”</p>
<p>The United States has advised its citizens against traveling to the Tigray or Afar regions and has prohibited government personnel from doing so.</p>
<p>This renewed conflict exacerbates instability in the region and has connections to other regional conflicts, particularly the civil war in Sudan. Although the federal army is currently in a stronger position compared to the rebels than in 2020, the rebels' lack of heavy weaponry and the federal forces' advantage in drone capabilities may not guarantee a swift resolution. The diverse geographic locations of the rebel groups also stretch federal forces thin across challenging terrain.</p>