WASHINGTON — After two years of attempting to counter the Trump administration's agenda under a Republican majority, Democrats are seeking to gain control of both chambers of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, with 37 races considered competitive, including 21 that are categorized as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, a polling analysis site. Currently, Republicans hold a slight edge with 218 seats to Democrats' 214, with two seats vacant and one independent member in the chamber. To gain control of the House, Democrats need to secure a net gain of four seats.
Recent polling indicates that Democrats are closing the gap with their Republican opponents as President Trump's approval rating remains below 40%, potentially creating opportunities in unexpected areas. However, some moderate Democrats are facing challenges due to their association with the current administration, even as a more progressive faction gains popularity within the party.
Here are five competitive races to watch:
1. **Max Miller vs. Brian Poindexter**: Incumbent Republican Max Miller is facing union ironworker Brian Poindexter in Ohio's 7th Congressional District, which has shifted from solidly Republican to a toss-up. Miller is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee following allegations of extreme physical abuse made by his ex-wife, Emily Moreno. A recent Co/efficient poll shows Poindexter leading Miller by 14 points, with 86% of respondents aware of the allegations against Miller. Poindexter's campaign focuses on union support, healthcare benefits for retirees, and wage increases.
2. **Vicente Gonzalez Jr. vs. Eric Flores**: Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez Jr. is running against Republican challenger Eric Flores, an Army veteran endorsed by Trump. Gonzalez, who has served since 2016, is facing challenges due to redistricting that has made his district more favorable for Republicans. A Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll from August shows Gonzalez leading Flores 45% to 42%, with 8% undecided.
3. **Donald Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout**: Incumbent Democrat Donald Davis is contending with Republican Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, which has become more conservative following redistricting. This race is considered leaning Republican, with Trump endorsing Buckhout. Davis won the previous election by a narrow margin of less than 2 points.
4. **Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley**: Republican incumbent Mike Lawler is facing Democrat Cait Conley, a former White House director of counterterrorism. The Cook Political Report has shifted this race from likely Republican to a toss-up. A July poll indicated Lawler leading Conley 50% to 45%, with a nearly 3% margin of error.
5. **Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely**: A Democratic PAC plans to invest nearly $1 million to support Democrat state Rep. Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL player with ties to Trump. The Cook Political Report has identified this race as one of the most competitive in the country.
The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the outcome will be critical for both parties as they seek to gain control of Congress.