Brazilians will vote on October 4 in a presidential election featuring incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula, who advocates for multilateralism, made remarks at the UN General Assembly emphasizing Brazil's independence in foreign affairs, indirectly addressing US President Donald Trump. Trump's administration has previously supported Jair Bolsonaro and imposed sanctions on a judge involved in a case against him, which were lifted after negotiations with Lula.
Current polls indicate a close race between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, who seeks to strengthen ties with the US and reduce relations with China. Brazil's significance as an agricultural powerhouse and its rich natural resources, including rare earth elements and crude oil, have drawn international attention to the election.
Lula is seen as a representative of the South American left, while Flavio Bolsonaro is part of a growing far-right movement. The election outcome could influence Brazil's foreign policy direction, particularly regarding its relationship with the US and China. Lula supports engaging in dialogue with all nations, while Flavio Bolsonaro favors a conservative alliance with the US.
Leonardo Paz from the Brazilian Fundacao Getulio Vargas think tank noted that a Bolsonaro victory might not guarantee improved US relations, as Lula has maintained a functional relationship with Trump despite initial tensions. Historical concessions made by Jair Bolsonaro to the US during his presidency are also highlighted, including Brazil's decision to forgo its developing country status in WTO negotiations.
The implications of a Bolsonaro presidency could affect Brazil's standing in BRICS, the alliance of emerging economies, with Flavio Bolsonaro suggesting a review of Brazil's membership. However, experts predict that economic ties with China would remain important, despite potential political tensions.
Paz and Rubens Ricupero, a former Brazilian diplomat, expressed concerns about the potential for Flavio Bolsonaro to repeat his father's foreign policy mistakes, which had led to Brazil's isolation and strained relations with the European Union. Lula's commitment to environmental issues and climate change is underscored by his appointment of environmentalist Marina Silva as environment minister. The election is attracting global attention due to its potential impact on Brazil's international relations and environmental policies.