Democrats Lead in Congressional Polling Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Democrats are entering the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with a 9-percentage-point lead in the race for Congress, according to NBC News’ polling averages. This shift reflects a steady decline in support for Republicans, with President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 39%, down from 50% at the beginning of his term. The congressional average stands at 52% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans, indicating a preference for a Democratic-controlled Congress among likely voters. The polling averages, which are weighted calculations of publicly available polls, show that independents have increasingly favored Democrats, with a 16-point lead among these voters. The shift in independent voter preference is attributed to dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic policies and recent events, including the war in Iran and incidents involving federal immigration officers. NBC News emphasizes that these averages are designed to measure changes in public opinion over time rather than predict outcomes. The methodology includes considerations of recency, precision, stability, variety, and consistency in the polling data.