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Analysis of Changes in Air Warfare Dynamics in Ukraine

The dynamics of the air war in Ukraine have shifted significantly from early to late summer 2026. Initially, Ukraine was perceived to be gaining the upper hand, but by late summer, Russia's missile and drone production surged, while Ukraine faced a critical shortage of interceptors. This report outlines the factors contributing to this reversal, including changes in Russian military strategy and the adaptation of air defenses.

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Vadym Skibitsky Iryna Terekh Alexander Shokhin Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze Peter Korotaev

Our neutral summary

The dynamics of the air war in Ukraine have shifted significantly from early to late summer 2026. Initially, Ukraine was perceived to be gaining the upper hand, but by late summer, Russia's missile and drone production surged, while Ukraine faced a critical shortage of interceptors. This report outlines the factors contributing to this reversal, including changes in Russian military strategy and the adaptation of air defenses.

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Original Headline

How Russia turned the tide of the summer air war in Ukraine

Neutral Headline

Analysis of Changes in Air Warfare Dynamics in Ukraine