Drone explosions, airspace violations, and arson attacks have increasingly targeted Poland, Romania, and Moldova in Russian actions against Ukraine. More governments are now categorizing these incidents as deliberate acts of aggression.
Previously, Russia's war was perceived as a distant reality for many in Europe outside of Ukraine. While Russian drones occasionally entered the airspace of countries like Poland or Romania, official responses often downplayed the severity. Following a Russian drone strike on a high-rise apartment building in Galati, Romania, in late May, EU and NATO representatives were hesitant to label Russia's actions as intentional, instead referring to them as hybrid warfare.
Since the summer, the situation has changed significantly. Drone overflights have become nearly daily occurrences in parts of central and southeastern Europe, leading to crashes and explosions, particularly in countries bordering Ukraine. Authorities have increasingly closed airspace or suspended airport operations due to unauthorized flights. Russia has targeted border crossings, infrastructure, and trains in Ukraine, with incidents of sabotage becoming more frequent.
For the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, and Romania, the conflict is increasingly viewed as more than hybrid warfare. Politicians in these nations are asserting that Russia's actions are deliberate.
This was highlighted recently when Moldova reported four drones entering its airspace, with two exploding on its territory. Wreckage from another drone was also discovered, prompting a temporary closure of the northern airspace. Additionally, two drones violated Romanian airspace, with one crashing near Solca, leading to the closure of a nearby border crossing with Ukraine. NATO aircraft have been scrambled in response to these incidents.
In Poland, NATO fighter jets were deployed twice in response to Russian attacks near the Ukrainian border. Two Polish border crossings were evacuated after a fire occurred at a Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, located approximately 40 kilometers south of Warsaw. A Russian Mi-8 helicopter also briefly violated Polish airspace, remaining there for 42 seconds, according to the Polish military.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in Krakow that Russia is refining its tactics and that Poland must be prepared. He indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to exhaust both Ukraine and Europe by targeting their infrastructure. Tusk also suggested that the fire at the Starlink ground station might have been intentional.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu emphasized that Russia's war poses a threat to all of Europe, reaffirming Moldova's support for Ukraine. In Romania, Defense Minister Radu Miruta suggested that only a diplomatic protest was necessary, although he acknowledged that the crashed drone in Solca exhibited new technical features indicative of a newer Russian model. Romanian President Nicusor Dan, addressing the United Nations General Assembly, reiterated Romania's support for Ukraine, emphasizing the direct impact of the war on Romania due to repeated airspace violations.
Speculation is growing that Russia may extend its conflict to Western Europe. A CIA report cited by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo suggested that Russia could be preparing drone attacks on Italy, France, and Spain, potentially launched from international waters in the Mediterranean. French President Emmanuel Macron noted that the CIA had not informed France of such plans but acknowledged the plausibility of a Russian attack on Europe.
At a press conference in Denmark, politicians and military officials warned that Russia is expected to intensify its hybrid warfare against the West and NATO in the coming months, with the situation being the most serious since the Cold War, according to Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus.