The Republican National Midterm Convention took place in Dallas, Texas, on September 9, 2026. The outcome of the 2026 election will largely depend on how well Republicans defend their current House and Senate seats while also attempting to flip seats currently held by Democrats. Due to redistricting efforts, Republicans have more opportunities to gain House seats than is typical for the party of the sitting president in midterm elections. Republicans are targeting four Democratic-held Senate seats and have identified three dozen Democratic-held House seats for potential gains.
Historically, the party holding the White House has struggled to flip seats during midterm elections, often losing their own seats while failing to unseat many legislators from the opposing party. For instance, during previous wave elections under presidents such as Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, the president's party managed to flip no more than four seats held by the opposition. In 2006, Republicans did not capture any Democratic-held seats while losing control of the House.
This year, Republicans are optimistic about improving their record, with the National Republican Congressional Committee targeting 36 Democratic-held seats. The GOP's main opportunity lies in the 22 Democrats running in districts that voted for Trump in 2024, with many of these districts benefiting from recent redistricting.
Republicans are particularly focused on six seats where new district lines favor them, while the remaining 16 Democrats in Trump-won districts are proving to be more competitive than expected. Analysts note that dissatisfaction with Trump's performance could hinder Republican efforts to unseat Democrats, as Trump's approval ratings are low across various districts.
In South Texas, Republicans have redrawn congressional districts to favor their candidates, but recent polling indicates that Trump's support has diminished in these areas, with around 55% of voters disapproving of his performance. This trend may complicate Republican efforts to capitalize on their redistricting advantages.