Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stating that he believes the United States has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran’s terms at this moment. "I reject their proposal," Trump told reporters on Saturday, arguing that Iran wants an agreement because it is "losing so badly." "They want to make a deal, and I think that’s fine," he added. "I’d like to make a deal too. But that deal would not be acceptable."
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran had seen Trump’s initial reaction to its proposal but had yet to receive a response through mediators. Qatar has been mediating talks between Iran and the US on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
Iran’s seven-day proposal included the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing an estimated $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and observing a wider regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Yemen. In return, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with Washington on a final agreement.
The proposals are similar to a June memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by the two countries, which collapsed last month due to differences on the terms, leading to increased attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Experts suggest that Trump’s rejection indicates both sides are far apart on who should make the first concessions. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, noted that Trump believes the combination of the naval blockade and economic isolation is squeezing Iran enough that its latest proposal is a sign of weakness rather than an opportunity for the US.
Trump’s public assertion that Iran is "losing badly" suggests he thinks time is improving the US bargaining position. The Trump administration has intensified economic pressure on Tehran, tightening its naval blockade and imposing sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenues. Last week, the US imposed aviation sanctions on Iran, disrupting flights.
Richard Weitz, a senior nonresident associate fellow at the NATO Defence College, indicated that the White House may believe it can wait for better terms. However, there are concerns about Iran’s proposed sequencing, and Weitz suggested that Washington may be calculating that economic pressure over time will induce the Iranian government to make more concessions.
Trump’s strategy carries political risks, especially with the midterm elections approaching. A late August Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 63 percent of Americans opposed the US-Israel war on Iran. Rising fuel and transportation costs could also impact broader cost-of-living concerns before the elections.
Experts caution that while time may increase pressure on Iran, it also poses risks for Trump, as elevated energy prices and military exposure could create challenges for his administration. Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, suggested that Iran’s proposal could be seen as a way to offer Trump a potential route towards lower oil prices before the elections.
However, Iran may choose to escalate tensions in response to Trump’s rejection. Elmasry noted that both the Trump administration and Iran are under significant economic pressure. Krieg emphasized that Trump’s expectation of Iranian capitulation may be misguided, as increased pressure does not guarantee concessions.
Iran could raise the costs of conflict for its adversaries, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz and other strategic waterways. The Houthis, aligned with Iran, have expanded their control in Yemen, increasing their influence over the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which poses risks for global shipping.
Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, remarked that Tehran may be less concerned about overplaying its hand and more focused on avoiding premature compromises. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a lack of trust in negotiations with Washington, citing past attacks and sanctions following talks.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, noted that Iran is sending a dual message of diplomacy and defiance, prepared to resist pressure if negotiations fail. Trump’s rejection of the proposal may lead Tehran to harden its position rather than offer further concessions.
Experts agree that both sides currently believe waiting will lead to a better deal, with the protraction of the conflict being the most likely outcome.