Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated following US President Donald Trump's rejection of a diplomatic proposal from Iran aimed at reopening the waterway. Iranian media reported explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, with blasts near Qeshm Island suggesting the firing of antiship missiles and drones at vessels transiting the area. While Iranian authorities did not confirm any attacks, shipping incidents have continued, including an attack on an Indian cargo ship last week that resulted in a sailor's death.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has stated that the strait is closed to vessels that do not coordinate with Iranian authorities. The IRGC released video footage claiming to show a second US underwater drone seized this month. Iran has instructed shipping companies to use a temporary route approved by its authorities and to pay applicable fees, stating that the strait will not fully reopen until the US blockade on Iranian ports is lifted.
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced it would blacklist any shipping charterer that directs crews to unauthorized routes. The authority also published an apology from an unnamed shipowner who attributed pressure from their charterer for attempting to navigate through the strait.
The US maintains that its naval forces are successfully guiding oil tankers out of the strait via alternative routes. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that the average crude oil transit was nearly 13 million barrels per day. A September 19 update from US Central Command indicated that over one billion barrels of crude had been moved out of the Gulf in approximately two months, and that 122 commercial vessels had been redirected to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports, halting all Iranian crude exports.
Iran has accused the US of disseminating false information regarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to assert control over the key waterway. Shipping activities have been significantly disrupted since the onset of hostilities between the US and Israel against Iran on February 28.
Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, noted that Iran's maritime attacks have extended the economic impact of the conflict beyond its borders. He warned that while Iran has faced economic hardships due to the war and sanctions, it would be incorrect to assume that these pressures would lead to its submission. Krieg suggested that Iran's next actions may involve increasing pressure on Gulf nations rather than simply enduring US pressure.
At the United Nations General Assembly, Iran reiterated its willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if seven conditions were met, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen Iranian funds, and an end to attacks on various fronts. These conditions largely reflect a return to a previous memorandum of understanding between the US and Israel.
President Trump confirmed his rejection of Iran's proposal, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran remains firm on its conditions and will await an official response through mediators such as Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman.
Abolfazl Shekarchi, chief spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, warned that further US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would result in consequences for the US. He emphasized that the US should withdraw from the region to avoid further losses. Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia indicated that the situation was deteriorating, suggesting that the US might resort to military aggression against Iran.
Krieg posited that as the US continues to isolate Iran through sanctions, Tehran may rely on coercive measures in the Strait of Hormuz. He predicted that the most likely scenario would involve controlled attrition rather than a return to large-scale military operations. He anticipated further attacks on tankers and regional infrastructure, followed by limited US military responses against Iranian maritime assets.