Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has taken a lead over Mayor Karen Bass in the prediction market Polymarket as the two candidates approach the Nov. 3 mayoral runoff. Polymarket traders estimate Raman has a 58% chance of winning, while Bass is at approximately 42%, resulting in a gap of about 16 percentage points, according to data from the site on Monday morning. These figures are based on the prices traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to each candidate's potential victory. The prediction market does not reflect traditional polling numbers.
This shift follows a mid-September poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, conducted in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, which indicated Raman had 39% support among likely voters, compared to 28% for Bass. An additional 33% of respondents were undecided, indicating a significant portion of the electorate remains available for either candidate. The poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters.
Raman, who represents parts of the San Fernando Valley and the hillsides on the LA City Council, advanced to the runoff after finishing second in the June 2 primary, where Bass led with about 34% of the vote and Raman received roughly 29%. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who was initially expected to advance, finished third after later ballots were counted.
Raman has garnered strong support from younger voters and has received endorsements from progressive organizations, including the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. In contrast, Bass has encountered voter dissatisfaction regarding several significant issues facing the city, such as homelessness, housing affordability, and the response to the 2025 wildfires. The September poll indicated Bass has an unfavorable rating of about 63%, highlighting the challenges the incumbent faces in her bid for a second term.
A key consideration leading into the November runoff is how voters who supported Pratt in the primary will cast their votes.
The Nov. 3 runoff was necessitated because no candidate achieved more than 50% of the vote in the June primary.