Renewable Energy Growth Faces Potential Decline by 2028

<p>America is experiencing record increases in clean power generation despite opposition from President Trump regarding wind and solar energy. However, the American Clean Power Association warns that this growth could decline significantly as early as 2028.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> This situation highlights the gap between energy policy and actual infrastructure development, emphasizing the importance of a bipartisan permitting agreement currently being negotiated in the Senate.</p><hr /><p><strong>State of play:</strong> Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, stated that wind and solar development continues to benefit from favorable economic conditions and projects initiated prior to Trump's presidency. He noted, "If the administration continues to block the permitting of clean power, you'll start to see a cliff," indicating a potential drop in growth by 2028 or 2029.</p><ul><li>Senate negotiators are expected to present a bipartisan deal aimed at expediting energy permitting soon, although a final vote is not anticipated until after the midterm elections.</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Democrats are seeking assurances that the administration will allow stalled wind and solar projects to proceed in exchange for their support of broader permitting changes.</p><ul><li>Grumet described the potential agreement as "encouraging," noting its technology-neutral approach and provisions for the approval of wind projects. He emphasized, "Passage before the end of the year is essential."</li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers: </strong>According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, wind and solar are expected to account for nearly two-thirds of the new power capacity planned for the U.S. grid this year.</p><ul><li>The first half of 2026 marked a record for new wind, solar, and battery capacity, as reported by Grumet's organization.</li></ul><p><strong>The White House's position:</strong> The White House claims that the current growth figures reflect changes made under Trump's administration. Jarrod Agen, executive director of the White House National Energy Dominance Council, stated that the figures represent a carryover from previous policies.</p><ul><li>The Republican tax-and-spending law signed by Trump in July 2025 accelerated the expiration of federal tax credits for new wind and solar projects, which must begin construction by July 4 of this year or come online before 2028 to qualify.</li></ul><p><strong>Reality check:</strong> Lazard, a financial advisory firm, concluded that renewables remain the most cost-effective forms of new power generation on an unsubsidized basis, although this analysis does not account for the inherent variability of wind and solar energy.</p><ul><li>Grumet remarked, "We feel that we're on very firm ground in an honest, competitive marketplace, but no industry can overcome active obstruction."</li></ul><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> The debate is occurring as U.S. electricity demand rises rapidly, largely driven by the growth of AI technology. Grumet noted a contradiction in Trump's energy policy, stating, "The imperative to repudiate renewables is a greater incentive than the imperative to lower energy costs."</p><ul><li>Agen countered that the president believes wind and solar will not adequately meet the country's power needs, advocating instead for nuclear power.</li><li>Agen also rejected the notion that the administration opposes renewable energy, arguing that they should not receive preferential subsidies and citing concerns over dependence on China for energy equipment.</li><li>A White House official indicated that a strong bipartisan package had been agreed upon, but warned that commitments from the administration would not remain indefinitely if the deal does not progress swiftly.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Delays from the Pentagon in reviewing onshore wind projects have become a key issue in the permitting discussions.</p><ul><li>Agen stated, "Just rubber stamping every project to come in is not good," while Grumet argued that legitimate military concerns can be addressed, stating, "These are solvable problems."</li></ul><p><strong>After Congress accelerated</strong> the expiration of wind and solar tax credits last year, Grumet noted that the industry anticipated a return to normalcy. However, he reported that agencies have taken at least 17 actions restricting development, including halting offshore wind leasing and adding political reviews to permits.</p><ul><li>Federal courts have blocked several of these actions, including restrictions on wind approvals and barriers to renewable permitting.</li></ul><p><strong>What we're watching:</strong> In August, Trump issued an executive order that could limit certain electrical equipment linked to China. Grumet warned that depending on the Energy Department's interpretation, this could have significant economic implications.</p><ul><li>Grumet stated, "It has the potential to be devastating to the economy."</li></ul><p><strong>What's next:</strong> The Senate permitting deal could represent a positive development for all energy types, including renewable energy, but its final passage remains uncertain.</p>