British opinion polls indicate that the Labour Party is gaining support while Reform UK is experiencing a decline. Andy Burnham, who has been in office for just over two months, received positive feedback for his inaugural speech at the Labour conference in Liverpool. The Financial Times characterized his vision as 'courageous,' and broadcaster Piers Morgan described it as 'one of the best, and most powerfully delivered, by a British politician in a very long time.' Journalist Andrew Marr noted that Burnham's performance might surpass that of Tony Blair.
Burnham's focus on social welfare has contributed to what some are calling a 'Burnham bounce' in polling. The Survation polling platform reported on Wednesday that Labour's voting intention increased by two percentage points to 29 percent, while Reform UK decreased by one point to 23 percent.
Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, stated that Labour's recovery is not primarily due to Reform voters shifting towards Labour, but rather that left-wing and liberal voters are more inclined to support Burnham's direction. He cautioned that while Burnham's impact on polling is notable, it may not be sustainable in the long term due to ongoing economic challenges and the upcoming election.
Since Labour's victory in the 2024 general election, it has been competing with Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage. A YouGov poll from last week suggested that if an election were held immediately, Labour would secure the most seats but would face a hung parliament with 241 seats, compared to 130 for the Conservatives and 123 for Reform UK.
Patrick Diamond, a public policy professor at Queen Mary University, predicted that voters will support the candidate most likely to defeat Reform. He noted that Reform UK is losing appeal due to financial scandals, while Burnham is regaining support from the left, particularly from the Greens.
A YouGov poll released on Tuesday indicated that Reform UK had a slight lead over Labour, with 25 percent of respondents favoring Reform UK and 24 percent choosing Labour. The Conservatives received 19 percent support, while the Liberal Democrats garnered 12 percent, the Greens 11 percent, and the far-right Restore Britain party received 3 percent.
Reform UK's deputy leader, Richard Tice, commented on the poll results by stating, 'Burnham bounces down.' During the 2024 general election, Labour won 412 seats, ending 14 years of Conservative governance. However, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced unpopularity, allowing Reform UK to gain traction.
Diamond noted that Labour's position improved after Starmer's departure, with Burnham further enhancing the party's standing. He pointed out that recent challenges for Labour were more related to Starmer's unpopularity than the party's brand.
Starmer faced criticism on various issues, including his stance on Israel-Palestine and his leadership qualities. As Starmer's popularity waned, Farage attracted support from Conservative voters, leading to predictions that Reform UK could win an election.
A More in Common poll conducted a year ago indicated that Reform could secure a 96-seat majority, winning 373 seats. In the May 2025 local elections, Reform performed well, winning 677 of 1,637 available seats, or 41 percent. However, a July poll showed a decline in Reform UK's projected success, estimating they would win 293 seats.
On Tuesday, Burnham pledged to 'break with the direction of the past 40 years and put Britain on a new path,' promising to reverse former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's reforms from the 1980s and increase public control over housing, water, and energy.
Diamond emphasized that while Burnham's proposals may resonate with Labour supporters, he must also appeal to centrist voters, particularly those in marginal seats. These voters tend to favor Labour's public service policies and economic growth measures but are sensitive to tax issues and expect government efficiency.