The situation regarding the Houthis in Yemen presents challenges for Saudi Arabia, as the kingdom seeks to address the threats posed by the militia. The United States has shown limited interest in direct involvement, while European nations are cautious about escalating tensions with Iran. Recently, students in Saudi Arabia were advised to attend classes online due to potential Houthi attacks, but were later cleared to return to in-person learning.
Since July, the Houthis have intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia, launching missiles and drones across the border. They have also gained ground in Yemen, increasing their control over the Yemeni coast and several islands in the Red Sea, which allows them to monitor maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
This escalation poses a threat to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative, aimed at reducing reliance on oil revenues. Marcus Schneider, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Regional Peace and Security Project in the Middle East, noted that the conflict is drawing Saudi Arabia deeper into a regional war that it sought to avoid.
The Houthi attacks have targeted Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, which is over 1,200 kilometers long. Although reports indicate that the pipeline is operational again, the Houthis' actions have increased pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Andrew Leber from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace described the situation as a "one-two punch of pipeline attacks and Red Sea seizures," potentially forcing Saudi Arabia to revert to using the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments, despite the risks involved.
The United States has expressed its intention to support Saudi Arabia with intelligence and reconnaissance but appears hesitant to engage in direct military action against the Houthis. The Center for Strategic and International Studies highlighted challenges faced by the US military, including shortages of advanced interceptors, which complicates the prospect of opening another front in its ongoing conflict with Iran.
Analysts suggest that a large, coordinated ground operation would be necessary to effectively counter the Houthi threat, but Saudi Arabia has shown reluctance to pursue this option. Despite previous military efforts from a coalition that included the US and the United Arab Emirates, decisive victories against the Houthis have not been achieved, revealing limitations in Saudi military capabilities.
The Houthis, well-established in Yemen, can effectively disrupt infrastructure and shipping without needing to win a conventional war. Schneider emphasized that Saudi Arabia requires stability for its economic vision, which is increasingly at risk.
Since early 2024, European nations have initiated Operation Aspides to protect international shipping in the Red Sea. Italy has committed to securing passage for its merchant vessels, while France plans to send military support to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu. However, experts remain skeptical about whether these European efforts will significantly alter the military dynamics in Yemen.
The Mecca alliance, formed with Pakistan and Turkey, has limitations, as both countries are also cautious about direct confrontation with Iran. This context suggests that diplomatic efforts may become increasingly important. Abdulghani al-Iryani from the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies noted that the Houthis have a vested interest in maintaining relations with Saudi Arabia due to Yemen's economic dependence on the kingdom for humanitarian aid and employment opportunities.
Saudi Arabia has attempted to mitigate the Houthis' influence through diplomatic means and by unifying Yemeni government forces, but the militia's recent advances indicate the challenges of this approach.