Fox News Poll Shows Tight Race Between El-Sayed and Rogers in Michigan Senate Contest

<p>According to a Fox News poll, Michigan voters have expressed concerns about both candidates in the U.S. Senate race, resulting in a close contest. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow 1-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, with 50% to 49% among likely voters. The poll, released on September 30, 2026, is the first of the season among likely voters, making direct comparisons to previous polls unavailable.</p><p>Among registered voters, the preference is nearly identical, with 51% supporting El-Sayed and 48% supporting Rogers. This marks a shift from August, when Rogers led by 4 points among registered voters, 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%.</p><p>El-Sayed's supporters show a higher level of certainty in their choice, with 87% expressing confidence compared to 80% of Rogers' supporters. Overall, 15% of voters indicate they might change their choice before the election, including 18% of Rogers' supporters and 12% of El-Sayed's.</p><p>Concerns about the candidates are reflected in voter sentiment, with 39% of respondents worried about Rogers' closeness to President Donald Trump and 36% concerned about El-Sayed's liberal views. Favorable ratings are also close, with 47% viewing El-Sayed positively and 44% viewing Rogers positively. Since August, El-Sayed's positive ratings have increased by 5 points, while Rogers' have decreased by 4 points.</p><p>El-Sayed performs well among traditionally Democratic groups, including women, Black voters, and those with a college degree. He also leads among voters under 45 and union households. Rogers' support comes from men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters, and Whites without a college degree.</p><p>Both candidates receive strong backing from their respective parties, with Rogers garnering 95% support among Republicans and El-Sayed receiving 93% among Democrats. Among independents, there is a slight preference for El-Sayed.</p><p>The political landscape currently favors El-Sayed, as Democrats hold a 5-point advantage when voters are asked which party they prefer to control the Senate, 52% to 47%. However, El-Sayed must consolidate Democratic support following a contentious primary, with 11% of likely voters who supported his primary opponent, Haley Stevens, indicating they plan to vote for Rogers.</p><p>Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that while short-term political factors favor Democrats, concerns about El-Sayed could impact the race. Approximately 40% of Michiganders report financial struggles, supporting El-Sayed by 25 points, while those whose finances are stable favor Rogers by 13 points.</p><p>Cost of living is a significant issue for 70% of voters, who support El-Sayed by 13 points. He also leads among those focused on U.S. policy toward Israel and AI technology, while Rogers is favored by those prioritizing immigration.</p><p>Half of Michigan voters consider Trump's influence on their Senate vote to be extremely important, favoring El-Sayed by 22 points. In the 2024 election, Trump won Michigan by less than two percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point.</p><p>Voter dissatisfaction with the current administration poses challenges for Rogers, with nearly 60% disapproving of the president's performance. Although 40% approve, not all support Rogers, who remains competitive with 19% of Trump disapprovers, even as 28% of those who somewhat disapprove of Trump prefer El-Sayed.</p><p>In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 54% to 45% among likely voters, with 12% of Rogers' supporters in the Senate race crossing party lines to support Benson.</p><p>The poll was conducted from September 24-28, 2026, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with a sample of 1,203 Michigan registered voters. The margin of error for the registered voter sample is ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of likely voters, it is ±3 percentage points.</p><p>Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.</p>