<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Media coverage of a series of new polls has generally focused on which candidates are leading. However, these polls also reveal insights into the current mood of the electorate.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Is voting a duty or a choice?</strong> According to the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 65% of registered voters view voting as a duty, indicating they feel obligated to participate in every election regardless of their feelings towards the candidates and parties. In contrast, 34% consider voting a choice, feeling free to decide whether to vote based on their opinions of the candidates and parties. Both Democrats and Republicans largely agree that voting is a duty.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>A fair and accurate election?</strong> The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 75% of registered voters expressed confidence that their state and local governments would conduct a fair and accurate election in November. This sentiment was shared by two-thirds of Republican respondents.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Additionally, an NBC News poll indicated that 72% of registered voters were confident their state could facilitate a fair election, ensuring that all eligible voters have the opportunity to vote and that votes are counted accurately.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Minds made up?</strong> Voters tend to finalize their decisions early. In 2022, 68% of voters reported to exit pollsters that they had made their decision regarding the House vote before October, with another 19% deciding in October. Only 6% made their decisions in the final days leading up to the election.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In a mid-September Economist/YouGov poll, 73% of registered voters stated their minds were made up about their House vote, while 11% were considering voting for a different candidate, and 12% remained undecided. Among those in states with a Senate contest, 74% reported having made up their minds, while 14% indicated they might change their minds.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also indicated that 38% of respondents had been contacted by a campaign, political party, or civic organization encouraging them to vote.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Do voters like anyone?</strong> In the 2024 exit poll, only 2% of voters expressed a favorable opinion of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Among the rest, 44% had a favorable opinion of Trump, and 44% had a favorable opinion of Harris. In 2016, a similar pattern emerged, with only 2% of voters favoring both Trump and Hillary Clinton, while 41% favored Clinton and 38% favored Trump.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Analysis of the new polls indicates that no major national figure or party is viewed more positively than negatively. In the NBC News poll, Vice President JD Vance received 48% negative to 37% positive ratings, Trump received 55% negative to 37% positive, the Republican Party received 49% negative to 36% positive, and the Democratic Party received 50% negative to 29% positive. The Economist/YouGov poll reflected similar sentiments, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) receiving 52% unfavorable to 27% favorable, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) receiving 41% unfavorable to 29% favorable, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) receiving 43% unfavorable to 28% favorable, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) receiving 34% unfavorable to 18% favorable. Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) was viewed slightly more favorably than unfavorably, but 51% of respondents were unfamiliar with him.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>New blood?</strong> The Pew Research Center reported that a record 74 House lawmakers were leaving their positions at the end of the primary season, some to pursue other offices and others leaving Congress entirely. This raises questions about whether many lawmakers are sensing a general dissatisfaction with Congress and politics.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 58% of respondents believed it was more important to vote for candidates with new ideas who would bring about change, compared to 38% who preferred candidates with experience and a proven record.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Public predictions:</strong> Pew recently reported that trading volume on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket doubled between May and July, primarily driven by sports betting. In the Economist/YouGov poll, 39% of registered voters predicted that Democrats would hold a majority in the Senate after the November elections, while 35% predicted Republicans would. Among Democrats, 73% believed their party would take control, while 72% of Republicans believed the same for their party. Additionally, 45% of respondents believed Democrats would control the House, while 31% believed Republicans would.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Do we care?</strong> The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicated that 87% of respondents cared a great deal or quite a bit about which party wins control of Congress in the upcoming elections.</p>