US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for military readiness by 2027. This assessment is based on delays in military readiness due to the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign and Beijing's interest in the outcomes of Taiwan’s 2028 election. Some Chinese officials hope for a government in Taiwan that would be more amenable to Chinese control. US officials indicate that if the Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, particularly if current President Lai Ching-te is reelected, Beijing may consider using force in 2028 and beyond.
One US official noted, "If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty." Lai and the DPP advocate for Taiwan’s separate identity from China, which Beijing views as part of its territory. The assessment marks a significant update to previous US understandings of Xi's military readiness timeline.
China has not publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order but has not ruled out using force to assert control over Taiwan. In a recent speech, Xi emphasized promoting peaceful development in cross-strait relations. The 2027 benchmark has created urgency in US strategies to counter China in the Asia-Pacific region.
The US intelligence community has previously indicated that China did not plan to invade Taiwan in the near term and preferred to achieve control without force. While the US is Taiwan’s key international supporter, officials offered mixed views on whether China would consider the 2028 US presidential election a significant factor in its military strategy.
Some officials believe Beijing may want to assess the election outcome, while others argue that both major US parties are aligned on Taiwan issues. Former President Donald Trump has downplayed the likelihood of a Chinese invasion during his presidency, stating that Xi assured him of no invasion while he was in office.
China regards Taiwan as a crucial issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity and has called for an end to US arms sales to Taiwan. The US strategy has focused on equipping Taiwan to resist Chinese forces until US assistance can arrive. Although Xi has not abandoned his goal for military capabilities by 2027, delays in military development have occurred due to the anti-corruption campaign affecting the People’s Liberation Army.
Recent military exercises have been smaller and less threatening, and there are concerns regarding the PLA's readiness. One official noted that China has learned from conflicts in Iran and Ukraine the importance of swift military action to avoid prolonged conflict. The official concluded that many elements are not yet in place for what would be a complex military operation.