On October 3, Latvians will elect a new parliament, with security concerns regarding Russia significantly influencing the campaign. The agenda includes discussions on the economic implications of reducing ties with Moscow. Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets are stationed at Latvia's Lielvarde military air base, located 60 kilometers from Riga, as part of NATO's initiative to bolster Baltic air defenses. This deployment follows several drone incursions that have raised alarms in Latvia ahead of the elections.
Security has emerged as a key issue in the campaign, with defense pledges featured prominently in the platforms of many leading political parties. Recent incidents, including a drone shot down by NATO in Lithuania on September 15, have heightened public anxiety regarding potential threats from Russia. Additionally, Latvia and its neighbors have reported hybrid threats, such as increased migrant flows allegedly encouraged by Belarus, which are perceived as attempts to pressure the EU and test border security. Intelligence officials from several European nations, including Latvia and the Czech Republic, have indicated that Russia may seek to challenge NATO in the near future.
Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, stated, "There are concerns in the West and also here in the Baltic states that Russia might be trying some further actions here in the Baltics. If you want to test NATO, there is no better place than the Baltic states."
Latvia's parliament, the Saeima, consists of 100 seats and is elected through proportional representation, which typically results in coalition governments. Current polls indicate that the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, is in the lead, followed by the populist alliance Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, led by Ainars Slesers. The center-left Progressives and the conservative National Alliance are also expected to gain seats.
Most Latvian parties view Russia as a security threat. Agnese Kupca of the United List remarked, "The biggest threat is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus. Our partners in the EU should understand: it is not only our border with Russia, but also EU and NATO border with aggressor."
Latvia is one of the few NATO members legally committed to spending 5% of its GDP on defense. Analysts suggest that the country's foreign policy direction is unlikely to change regardless of the coalition formed after the elections, as there is broad consensus on the importance of NATO among voters. According to the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) Security Radar 2025, Latvians generally hold a positive view of NATO.
While there is agreement on security policy, the economic ramifications of distancing from Russia remain contentious. Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a significant trading partner for Latvia. Since 2022, Latvia has reduced imports from Russia and Belarus by over 90% and implemented stringent restrictions on goods from these countries. Although the economy has adapted, businesses with strong historical ties to Russia have faced challenges.
Filips Rajevskis, a political analyst, noted, "This closeness to the theater of war has strongly influenced the investment climate. So the big question is how to increase the investments and grow the economy."
A significant portion of the Latvian population, approximately 60%, supports reducing dependence on Russia, according to FES Security Radar 2025. One resident in Riga expressed, "In the current situation, it's absolute nonsense. We can't watch what's happening and still be friends with Russia."
Conversely, 20% of Latvians favor closer ties with Russia, and calls for a more pragmatic approach towards the country are present in political discussions. Julija Stepanenko, leader of Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, has advocated against completely severing economic ties with Russia and Belarus. Earlier this year, it was revealed that Stepanenko received gifts valued at approximately €400,000 ($470,000) from her father, a businessman based in Russia. Despite this, her party remains in second place in the polls.
Lyubov Shvetsova, a candidate from Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians, rejected claims that her party is pro-Russian, stating, "Our approach is pragmatism oriented toward the interests of Latvian business."
Ainars Slesers, leader of Latvia First, has also advocated for continued transit of goods with Russia as long as it complies with EU sanctions. His party has focused on economic issues, arguing for prioritizing growth and investment over perceived excessive restrictions, garnering support from over 9% of voters in current polls.
However, discussions about fully restoring trade with Russia are considered premature. Party member Edmunds Zivtins stated, "As long as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, we cannot talk about it."
Analysts suggest that parties advocating for a more pragmatic approach may attract voters who feel alienated by Latvia's increasingly restrictive stance towards Russia, particularly among the Russian-speaking minority, which comprises about one-third of the population.
The outcome of the elections remains uncertain, with many voters reportedly concealing their party preferences and intentions to vote. As Latvians prepare to head to the polls, the influence of Moscow is evident in the campaign, shaping discussions around security, economic policies, and cultural issues that continue to divide the electorate.