On October 3, Latvians will elect a new parliament with Russia as a significant factor in the campaign. Security concerns dominate the agenda, alongside discussions on the economic implications of reducing ties with Moscow.
Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets are stationed at Latvia's Lielvarde military air base, located approximately 60 kilometers from Riga. These aircraft are part of NATO's efforts to bolster Baltic air defenses in response to repeated drone incursions, which have heightened alert levels in Latvia ahead of the elections.
Security has emerged as a key issue in this campaign, with defense pledges featuring prominently in the platforms of most leading parties. Public concerns are supported by recent incidents, including several drones entering Baltic airspace, the latest of which occurred on September 15 in Lithuania, where a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus was shot down by a NATO fighter jet.
Additionally, hybrid threats such as migrant flows are being attributed to Belarus, an ally of Russia, as a means to pressure the EU and test border security. Intelligence officials from several European nations, including Latvia and the Czech Republic, have indicated that Russia may seek to test NATO in the upcoming months.
Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, stated, "There are concerns in the West and also here in the Baltic states that Russia might be trying some further actions here in the Baltics. If you want to test NATO, there is no better place than the Baltic states."
Latvia's parliament, the Saeima, consists of 100 seats and is elected through proportional representation, leading to coalition governments. Current polls indicate that the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, is in the lead, followed by the populist alliance Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, led by Ainars Slesers. The center-left Progressives and the conservative National Alliance are also expected to gain seats.
Most Latvian parties view Russia as a security threat. Agnese Kupca of the United List remarked, "The biggest threat is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus. Our partners in the EU should understand: it is not only our border with Russia, but also the EU and NATO border with the aggressor."
Latvia is one of the few NATO members that has legally committed to spending 5% of its GDP on defense. Analysts suggest that the country's foreign policy orientation is unlikely to change regardless of the coalition formed after the elections, as there is a strong consensus on the importance of NATO among voters. According to the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) Security Radar 2025, Latvians generally hold a positive view of NATO.
While security policy is largely agreed upon, the economic ramifications of distancing from Russia remain contentious. Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a key trading partner for Latvia. Since 2022, Latvia has reduced imports from Russia and Belarus by over 90% and implemented some of the strictest restrictions in the EU on goods from these countries. Although Latvia's economy has adapted, businesses with strong pre-war ties to Russia have faced significant challenges.
Filips Rajevskis, a political analyst, noted, "This closeness to the theater of war has strongly influenced the investment climate. So the big question is how to increase the investments and grow the economy."
Many Latvians oppose any economic cooperation with Russia due to security concerns. According to FES Security Radar 2025, 60% of respondents want Latvia to reduce its dependence on Russia. One resident in Riga commented, "In the current situation, it's absolute nonsense. We can't watch what's happening and still be friends with Russia."
Conversely, 20% of Latvians favor closer ties with Russia, and calls for a more pragmatic approach towards the eastern neighbor are present in political discussions. Julija Stepanenko, leader of Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, has advocated against completely severing economic ties with Russia and Belarus.
Earlier this year, it was revealed that Stepanenko received gifts valued at approximately €400,000 ($470,000) from her father, a businessman in Russia. Despite this, her party remains in second place in the polls.
Lyubov Shvetsova, a candidate from the Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians party, rejected claims that the party is pro-Russian, stating, "Our approach is pragmatism oriented toward the interests of Latvian business."
Ainars Slesers, leader of Latvia First, has also argued for continuing the transit of goods with Russia as long as it does not violate EU sanctions. His party has emphasized economic issues, advocating for prioritizing growth and investment over perceived excessive restrictions, garnering support from over 9% of voters, placing them in third in the polls.
However, discussions about fully restoring trade with Russia are considered premature. Party member Edmunds Zivtins stated, "As long as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, we cannot talk about it."
Analysts suggest that such parties may attract voters who feel alienated by Latvia's increasingly restrictive stance towards Russia, particularly among the Russian-speaking minority who feel overlooked by mainstream parties and are concerned about policies like the reduction of Russian-language education.
Approximately one-third of Latvia's population speaks Russian at home. The outcome of the elections remains unpredictable, with many voters potentially concealing their party preferences and even their intentions to vote.
As Latvians prepare to vote, the influence of Moscow is evident in shaping the campaign, presenting both a security threat that bolsters support for NATO and defense spending, and an economic and cultural issue that continues to divide the electorate.