<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Recent polling indicates that Democrats are making gains in several states that President Donald Trump won in 2024, potentially impacting the party's chances of reclaiming the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A New York Times/Siena College poll covering five states—Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas—reveals that Democratic Senate candidates are either tied or leading in each race. This reflects a competitive environment in states Trump won by margins of 11 to 16 percentage points in 2024.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The polling shows former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 7 points in Alaska, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Jon Husted by 3 points in Ohio, and Democratic candidates Josh Turek and James Talarico leading their Republican opponents by 1 and 6 points, respectively, in Iowa and Texas. The Kansas race between Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton is effectively tied.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">These findings align with other recent polling that indicates competitive races in traditionally Republican states. In Texas, surveys have shown Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton closely matched. A Fox News poll conducted from September 24 to 28 indicated Talarico leading with 51% compared to Paxton's 49% among likely voters.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Across the five states surveyed by Times/Siena, Trump has a 40% approval rating, while 57% view him unfavorably. His approval rating has decreased by 5 points since the previous surveys conducted in June.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In all five states, voters were more inclined to perceive the Democratic candidate as having good character compared to the Republican candidate. Additionally, in four of the five states, voters were more likely to describe the Republican candidate as being too far to the right than the Democrat as too far to the left. Ohio was the exception, where both candidates were viewed similarly on this measure.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Texas, Talarico has remained competitive despite significant Republican efforts to define him negatively. The Times/Siena polling found that 40% of voters considered Talarico too far to the left, which is relatively unchanged since June, while 47% viewed Paxton as too far to the right.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ohio has emerged as a significant battleground, with Brown challenging Husted in a state that Trump won with over 55% of the vote in 2024. The Ohio race has also introduced discussions around artificial intelligence and data centers, with voters preferring Brown over Husted by 10 points on these issues. Ohio has become a focal point in the national debate regarding data center growth and its implications for electricity demand and local communities.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Alaska presents a unique situation, with Peltola's 7-point lead following a top-four primary where she finished ahead of Sullivan. The general election in Alaska will also feature another candidate named Dan Sullivan, leading to a potential ballot confusion that prompted pollsters to clarify they were asking about the incumbent.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Kansas was the closest race in the Times/Siena survey, with Marshall and Hamilton nearly tied. Hamilton, a first-time Democratic candidate and Methodist megachurch pastor, had the highest net favorability rating among the candidates surveyed, while 28% of likely voters indicated they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion.</p>