Democratic candidates in Texas and Alaska have reached 50% or more in recent polls, indicating a potential shift in Senate control. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Saturday shows Texas Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 51% to 45%. President Trump's approval rating in Texas is reported at 40%, with 57% disapproving.
The poll indicates Talarico has a six-point advantage, slightly outside the 4.5-percentage-point margin of error, and is nearly double his lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. A previous Marist College poll also showed Talarico ahead by six points.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 50% to 43%, a seven-point lead that surpasses the poll's margin of error.
Additionally, a poll indicates former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leading Republican Senator Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 46%, just hours before Trump was scheduled to visit Ohio to support Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by 48% to 47%, while in Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall is tied with Democrat Adam Hamilton at 45% each.
The Senate Leadership Fund, linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), has redirected $10 million from the North Carolina Senate race to Kansas to protect the GOP majority. In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman.
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, requiring Democrats to gain four seats to take control. White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, when asked about Trump's confidence in Whatley's chances, stated, "I can’t comment on specific races, but the president’s incredibly proud of Michael Whatley. Of course, Michael Whatley was a big partner."
All five races mentioned in the polls could result in pickups for Democrats. Maine Senator Susan Collins is also facing a challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson, with the latest CBS News poll showing them tied at 50-50. Additionally, there are competitive races in New Hampshire and Michigan, where Republican candidate former Rep. Mike Rogers criticized Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.