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Brazil's Presidential Election Polls Indicate Tight Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro is competing against incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential election, with polls indicating a close race. Lula aims for a fourth term, while Flavio Bolsonaro seeks to continue his father's right-wing populist legacy. The first round of voting is expected to lead to a runoff, with current polls showing Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%.

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Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva Flavio Bolsonaro Jair Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is competing against incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential election. Polls indicate that the first round of voting may lead to a runoff.

The latest polling suggests a close contest in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, with Lula seeking a fourth non-consecutive term and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro aiming to advance the right-wing populist movement initiated by his father. The two candidates concluded their campaigns on Saturday in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest state.

Lula, aged 80, finished his campaign with a tour in Sao Paulo, promising to "defeat the far right" and presenting the election as a choice between "democracy and sovereignty" versus "barbarism and corruption." Organizers reported that approximately 150,000 supporters attended his rally.

Lula's campaign focuses on the left-leaning Workers' Party platform, which includes welfare programs, state-funded development, and income redistribution.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has been a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. On Saturday, he led a motorcycle parade through the cities of Santa Barbara d'Oeste and Americana in Sao Paulo.

Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign emphasizes hardline security policies and tax cuts, criticizing Lula's administration for the high cost of living. He stated, "I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round," while also holding up a portrait of his father, with the crowd chanting "mito," a term used by Jair Bolsonaro's supporters.

Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence related to an attempted coup following his electoral loss to Lula in 2022. Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father if he wins the election.

Lula's team has characterized the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil's sovereignty, citing the ties between the Bolsonaro family and former US President Donald Trump, who previously imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial.

Flavio Bolsonaro has described himself as "more moderate" than his father, while still acknowledging him as a guiding influence. Both Bolsonaros share similar positions on relaxed gun control laws and skepticism regarding human-caused climate change.

Although Trump has not endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro, he has expressed interest in the election, stating he is watching it "very closely."

Brazil is currently politically divided, and the campaigning has been contentious, with both sides utilizing social media to capitalize on mistakes and rumors.

In September, it was reported that Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion related to the financing of a biopic about his father, which he has denied.

Polls indicate that neither candidate is expected to secure more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, which would necessitate a runoff on October 25. The latest polling data from the Brazilian firm Quaest, cited by Reuters, shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% for the first round. In a potential runoff, Lula is at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.

In the 2022 election, Lula won against Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of 1.8 percentage points. Alongside the presidential vote, Brazil's 160 million registered voters will also select other lawmakers, governors, and some senators.

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Original Headline

Brazil's 2026 presidential election is kicking off with polls showing Lula and Bolsonaro nearly tied.

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Brazil's Presidential Election Polls Indicate Tight Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro