Labour Party support increased by two points to 30 percent in the latest Opinium research, marking the highest level recorded by the firm since 2024. Reform UK follows with 25 percent, gaining one point, while the Conservative Party is at 17 percent. If these figures hold, projections from Electoral Calculus suggest Labour could secure 342 seats, Reform 155 seats, and the Conservatives only 55 seats in a potential election. However, the unpredictability of constituency outcomes complicates these projections.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has attempted to dispel rumors of a snap election, calling the notion 'dead' prior to the Labour conference. In his speech in Liverpool, he introduced policies on social care, electoral reform, the state pension 'triple lock', and Brexit, which he indicated would be pursued post-election.
Kemi Badenoch, addressing the Conservative conference in Birmingham, has encouraged her party to prepare for a possible election in May. While the latest Opinium findings are unfavorable for the Conservatives, other polling firms have reported more favorable numbers for them.
Burnham's personal approval rating increased by one point to a net positive of eight, while Badenoch's rating is at minus one, and Nigel Farage's score is at minus 22. Opinium's survey indicated that voters generally support the establishment of a national social care service, a proposal made by Burnham without detailed timelines or funding information. The public also showed support for his ambiguous commitment to explore options regarding the UK's relationship with the EU.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented on Burnham's effective delivery of his conference speech and significant policy announcements, raising the question of whether Kemi Badenoch can capture public attention in a similar manner during her upcoming address.