Nationalists Lead in Bosnia-Herzegovina's Recent Election

Bosnia-Herzegovina's three-member presidency is set to be dominated by nationalists from the three major ethnic groups, including Zeljka Cvijanovic, who is backed by disqualified Serb leader Milorad Dodik. Bosnian officials reported a record-low turnout following the Sunday vote, with only 41.5% of the country's 3.4 million voters participating in the general election. Nationalist parties dominated races as citizens chose officials across multiple tiers of government, including members of the country's multiethnic, tripartite presidency. With counting nearly concluded, Serb nationalist Zeljka Cvijanovic, Bosniak moderate leftist Denis Becirovic, and Croat nationalist Darijana Filipovic have been announced as the winners of the presidential seats of their respective ethnicities. Cvijanovic appeared to have won with 55.6% of the vote, while Social Democrat Becirovic secured the Bosniak seat with 38.1%, and Croat Filipovic received 48.2%. Voters also chose lawmakers for the federal parliament and the heads of institutions for the country's two largely autonomous entities — the Muslim-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Serb-run Republika Srpska (RS). Currently, about 50% of Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens are Muslim Bosniaks, 31% are Orthodox Serbs, and another 15% are Catholic Croats. Between 1992 and 1995, more than two million people were displaced and nearly 100,000 killed in a civil war. Despite the country being peaceful for decades, ethnonationalist parties have kept divisions alive as a way to hold on to power. Many voters, however, express a desire to move on from the war-era rhetoric. The election occurs amid economic challenges, sluggish progress toward EU membership, and sustained political gridlock, with dominant ethnic parties repeatedly stalling decisions by the weak central government. The election featured contests between the Bosniak SDA, Serb SNSD, and Croat HDZ BiH against multi-ethnic opposition coalitions led by the Social Democratic Party. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time (1700 GMT), with preliminary results to be released later in the evening, although complex constitutional order and drawn-out coalition talks mean that the true result of Sunday's election could remain unclear for months. The economic, administrative, and political responsibilities in Bosnia-Herzegovina are divided between the multiethnic central government, the two semi-autonomous entities FBiH and RS, and the self-governing neutral Brcko district. These entities are further split into several cantons and communities. The complicated framework, divided along ethnic lines, was established during the US-brokered 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, following the 1992-95 Bosnian war, a consequence of the breakup of Yugoslavia. In Republika Srpska, secessionist leader Milorad Dodik of the SNSD party remained a key figure in the election despite not being on the ballot. Dodik, the former president of the Serb-majority entity, is barred from holding public office for six years after being convicted of defying the top international envoy overseeing the 1995 peace process. Dodik-backed Savo Minic decisively won the Republika Srpska's presidency, and RS increased its parliamentary tally to 39%, up from 34.6% in 2022. After the vote, Dodik, who recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, thanked Putin and credited "Donald Trump's magnificent victory" for keeping his political camp alive. He stated that "now, thanks to the new environment, we are political winners." Dodik seeks closer ties to Serbia and Russia and advocates for secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. He declared, "Bosnia and Herzegovina is dead; it is an impossible country." In the Muslim-Croat federation, Bosniak parties are advocating for a stronger central state, with the main Bosniak SDA party focused on efforts to maintain the country's unity against Serb separatism. Bosnian Croats largely support their ethnic parties, including the Bosnian branch of Croatia's ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union. Meanwhile, Denis Becirovic, the incumbent Bosniak presidency member, has pledged to pursue a renewed path to the EU and NATO. Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a candidate for EU membership since 2022, but the actual start of membership talks depends on the implementation of numerous reforms, including strengthening judicial oversight and passing anti-corruption laws.