In the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is competing against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently imprisoned for plotting a military coup. To avoid a second round, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the votes. The election process in Brazil allows for direct voting without an electoral college, meaning each ballot counts equally. If no candidate achieves the required majority, a runoff will occur three weeks later between the top two candidates.
Lula, 80, a prominent figure in the Brazilian left, has previously served three terms and is noted for overseeing significant economic growth and poverty reduction during his first two terms from 2003 to 2011. Brazilian law restricts presidents to two consecutive terms, meaning that if Lula wins this election, he will not be eligible to run again in 2030. His 2018 conviction on corruption charges was annulled after he spent 580 days in prison.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a lawyer and former senator from Rio de Janeiro, and he is running as a far-right candidate. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year sentence for orchestrating a failed coup after losing the 2022 election but has endorsed Flávio's campaign, hoping for a potential release if his son wins.
Current opinion polls indicate that no other candidates are likely to challenge the two frontrunners, although there is no clear leader for the anticipated runoff on October 25. The newly elected president will assume office on January 5, 2027.
Minas Gerais is a key state in this election, known for its mining and agricultural significance, with a population of 21 million. Historically, it has been a bellwether state; since the return to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate has won the presidency without winning in Minas. In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro won the state by over 1.7 million votes, while Lula narrowly reclaimed it by fewer than 50,000 votes in 2022, leading to his nationwide victory. The outcome in Minas is often seen as indicative of the overall election results.