Populist Flavio Bolsonaro has secured a narrow lead over incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, but the next president of Brazil will be decided in a runoff round, according to the country’s electoral court.
With votes being counted in Brazil following the presidential election on Sunday, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro was leading the race ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro aims to continue the right-wing populist movement initiated by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula is seeking his fourth non-consecutive term.
With more than 99% of the ballots processed, Flavio Bolsonaro has received 47.2% of the vote, and Lula has 45%. Since neither candidate received enough votes to win outright on Sunday, the electoral court announced that Bolsonaro and Lula will face each other in a runoff on October 25.
Commenting on the outcome, Lula stated it was "unexpected" as he believed he would "win in the first round." He added, "Tomorrow we start a new campaign. I am very good in the knockout stage."
Bolsonaro expressed satisfaction with the possibility that, in three weeks, Brazil will choose a modern government. He is monitoring the vote count in Brasilia, while Lula is following it from Sao Paulo.
Fabio de Sa e Silva, a professor of Brazilian studies at the University of Oklahoma, noted that the right was currently gaining strength in Brazil, making it challenging for Lula to alter the election's trajectory. He stated, "He still has a chance, based on the numbers, but the momentum is with the right."
De Sa e Silva also remarked that the significant news would not be merely the runoff but the far-right's takeover in Congress, which could complicate Lula's potential governance.
Lula and Bolsonaro concluded their campaigns on Saturday in Sao Paulo, with Lula rallying approximately 150,000 supporters and vowing to "defeat the far right." He has campaigned on a platform of welfare programs, state-funded development, and income redistribution.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has served as the Liberal Party's senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. He led a motorcycle parade through Sao Paulo's countryside cities and held up a portrait of his father during his campaign.
Bolsonaro has focused on hardline security policies and tax cuts, criticizing Lula's administration for high living costs. He stated, "Brazil needs change. Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such as high taxes, so many women killed."
The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his loss to Lula in the 2022 presidential election. Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father if elected.
Lula's team has characterized the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil's sovereignty, citing ties between the Bolsonaros and former U.S. President Donald Trump, who previously imposed tariffs on Brazilian imports.
Flavio Bolsonaro has described himself as "more moderate" than his father, while still considering him a guiding influence. Both Bolsonaros share similar policies, including relaxed gun control laws and skepticism regarding human-caused climate change.
Trump has not endorsed the senator but has indicated he is closely monitoring the election. Brazil remains politically divided, with both campaigns utilizing aggressive online strategies to capitalize on any missteps or controversies.
In September, it was reported that Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion related to financing a biopic about his father, which he has denied.
The latest polling for the first round of voting shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, according to the Brazilian data intelligence and public opinion research firm Quaest, as cited by Reuters. In a potential runoff, the Quaest poll indicates Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
In 2022, Lula won against Jair Bolsonaro by only 1.8 percentage points. Along with voting for president, Brazil's 160 million registered voters are also selecting other lawmakers, governors, and some senators.