Brazil's presidential election is proceeding to a second round between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, following a first round in which neither candidate secured the majority needed to win outright. The electoral court confirmed on October 5 that the run-off will take place on October 25, with Bolsonaro receiving approximately 55.8 million votes compared to Lula's nearly 53.2 million.
Lula, who is 80 years old, is aiming for a fourth, non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades. Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is attempting to revive his father's right-wing movement while the former president serves a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
The election occurs during a critical period for Brazil, as citizens face challenges related to crime and the cost of living, alongside a tense relationship with the United States. The election results are being closely monitored throughout Latin America, where there has been a notable shift to the right in recent elections.
With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro received about 47 percent of valid votes, while Lula garnered 44.9 percent, neither achieving the 50 percent threshold required to win in the first round. This outcome sets the stage for another contest between Lula and Bolsonaro, four years after Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro.
The upcoming run-off may be competitive, as pre-election polls indicated a close race between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. Voters who supported other candidates in the first round will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the presidency in the next three weeks.
Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who collectively received about 5.3 million votes, have stated they will not endorse either candidate in the run-off. Polls leading up to the election had predicted that Lula would finish ahead of Bolsonaro in the first round, raising questions about the final polls' accuracy.
Bolsonaro remarked that the results indicate a desire for change among Brazilians. Analysts suggested that Bolsonaro may have gained from 'protest votes' from individuals who preferred other candidates but prioritized defeating Lula. Political analyst Rafael Favetti noted that while this could benefit Bolsonaro now, his potential support may decrease in the run-off due to the front-loaded nature of that support.
After the results were announced, Lula expressed surprise but stated he would return stronger in the run-off, saying, 'The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people.'
Bolsonaro's performance reflects a broader resurgence of Brazil's right, with right-wing parties, particularly Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL), performing well in both houses of Congress. The PL is expected to emerge as the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies and gain seats in the Senate. Members of the Bolsonaro family, including former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro, were also elected to the Senate.
The results indicate that the political movement surrounding Jair Bolsonaro, known as 'bolsonarista,' remains a significant electoral force despite the former president's disqualification from running. Andre Pagliarini, a professor at Louisiana State University, stated that the success of far-right candidates suggests a strong popular base for the bolsonarista project.
The congressional outcomes will have implications beyond election night, as a stronger right-wing presence could complicate Lula's ability to advance his agenda if he wins another term. Conversely, a Bolsonaro victory could provide him with more opportunities to pursue his priorities, including seeking an amnesty for his father.