Middle East crude oil exports exceed pre-war levels, according to data

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surpassed pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi stated in a televised interview on October 1 that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are currently moving through the US-supervised route in the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as 'negligible' compared to pre-war traffic. Fadavi noted that, for the first time, no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or the northern Indian Ocean, asserting that US warships are '100 percent vulnerable' to IRGC attacks. Kpler data indicated that crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million bpd. During this period, Iran claimed to have successfully attacked ships, including US Navy vessels, near the Strait of Hormuz, stating that these strikes had compelled Washington to reposition its warships further from the Iranian coast. Prior to the onset of the US-Israel war on Iran, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week leading up to September 30. On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports was recorded at 18.5 million bpd, which includes transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September to its highest monthly level since February. These figures do not account for any vessels that may have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. On October 1, Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.