Southeast Asia’s energy ministers are meeting this week to discuss regional energy security amid supply disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. The gathering of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Wednesday and Thursday comes as the region seeks to lessen its dependence on energy supply chains affected by conflict in the Middle East. The meetings in Manila, the Philippines, are expected to cover various initiatives on energy cooperation and clean energy, including a framework on fuel-sharing and the integration of the region’s power grids.
ASEAN, which has a combined gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding $4.2 trillion, is heavily reliant on imported oil and natural gas. Before the onset of the Iran war in late February, ASEAN’s 11 member states imported about half of their oil needs from the Middle East, making them vulnerable to supply constraints resulting from the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Philippines, currently chairing ASEAN, declared a national energy emergency shortly after the war began, warning that fuel supplies could be depleted within 45 days. Other ASEAN economies, including Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Cambodia, implemented energy-conservation measures such as work-from-home arrangements and fuel rationing.
Philippine Energy Secretary Sharon S Garin stated, "What happens in global energy markets can quickly reach our shores, affecting the cost and availability of fuel, disrupting industries, and putting pressure on households." She emphasized that ASEAN's chairmanship provides an opportunity to translate regional cooperation into practical arrangements to enhance collective preparedness for disruptions.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Southeast Asia’s per capita energy demand has increased by nearly 30 percent over the past decade, while oil production in the region has decreased by 40 percent from its peak in the 1990s. Electricity demand in the region, which has over 700 million residents, is projected to rise by an average of 5.4 percent annually from 2026 to 2030.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that Southeast Asia would encounter challenges in meeting its growing energy needs amid an “uncertain global energy landscape.” He stated, "Energy security must be built into decisions across the whole system from oil stocks and gas infrastructure to electricity grids and more efficient use of energy," and noted that closer cooperation among ASEAN countries could enhance resource utilization and response to disruptions.
Dinita Setyawati, head of Southeast Asia research at the energy think tank Ember, indicated that ASEAN ministers will present varying priorities during their discussions. For the Philippines, this includes participating in the ASEAN Power Grid with secured funding and governance for undersea cable connections. For Singapore, it may involve solidifying commitments from neighboring countries to export clean electricity, such as Singapore-Indonesia connections. Additionally, some countries may be interested in developing a regional carbon market to expand clean energy financing.
Despite ongoing efforts, ASEAN has faced challenges in achieving deeper energy integration across the bloc. Only nine of the 18 projects identified as priorities under the ASEAN Power Grid initiative have been completed since its inception in the late 1990s. Critics point out that unlike the European Union, ASEAN lacks a central authority to pass or enforce laws, which hampers its effectiveness.
Laurence Delina, an associate professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology specializing in energy policy in Southeast Asia, noted that ASEAN’s rhetoric has often outpaced its achievements, with cooperation primarily limited to bilateral energy-sharing agreements. He remarked, "It has no enforcement power like in the EU," and integrating the region’s energy grid presents both political and technical challenges.
Setyawati expressed optimism that ASEAN ministers will allocate more funding to renewables and electrification to decrease the region’s reliance on fossil fuels, stating that current data shows electrification accounts for around 25 percent of total final energy consumption in Southeast Asia.