During a public hearing, Germany's intelligence agencies identified Russia as the country's most significant adversary, with China also emerging as a concern. The heads of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), and the Military Counterintelligence Service discussed these threats in a rare public session held on Monday.
BfV President Sinan Selen indicated that military scenarios anticipated for 2029 are already manifesting, referencing NATO assessments suggesting that Russia could potentially launch an attack on the alliance in the coming years. However, BND President Martin Jäger stated there are no immediate indications of a military attack, noting instead that Russia is engaging in a "shadow war" involving sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage. Jäger emphasized that no other country poses as direct and comprehensive a threat to Germany as Russia does, warning that Germany risks becoming involved in a violent conflict with Russia.
Germany's support for Ukraine through military, financial, and humanitarian means is seen as a significant factor in Russia's perception of Germany as a major obstacle to its influence in Europe. Jäger stated that if Germany were to withdraw its support, it could destabilize the entire European support for Ukraine.
The intelligence officials expressed concerns about the ongoing war in Ukraine, predicting increased pressure from Russia during the winter months and efforts to disrupt Western arms deliveries. They noted that Russia is actively working to create uncertainty and weaken societal resilience within the European Union. Selen described these actions as "coldly calculated destabilization operations."
When questioned about whether Germany would be safer by reducing its support for Ukraine, Jäger affirmed that aiding Kyiv aligns with national interests. The agencies reported a rise in espionage, sabotage, and assassination attempts, particularly targeting transportation routes, military infrastructure, and the defense industry. An example cited was an attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, where a drone rigged with explosives was discovered.
Selen highlighted the increasing recruitment of low-level agents for espionage and sabotage, facilitated through digital channels and social media. The intelligence chiefs also noted that Russian services are collaborating with organized crime, a trend that necessitates more thorough preparation from security agencies.
The BND reported that Russia is gradually pushing boundaries through targeted actions, including drone overflights of NATO territory and airspace violations in Moldova, with Jäger suggesting that covert operations against NATO countries could be a possibility.
In addition to Russia, China remains a concern for security agencies, particularly regarding attempts to access German technology through research collaborations. The authorities are monitoring the spread of Chinese technology products, warning of potential data leaks and misuse of connected devices.
The discussion also addressed the rise of right-wing extremism, with Selen noting an alarming trend of young, violent groups forming international networks. MAD President Martina Rosenberg reported an increase in suspected extremism cases within the Bundeswehr, indicating that societal radicalization is affecting the armed forces.
In light of these threats, the heads of the BND and BfV defended a proposed expansion of intelligence powers, which would enhance their capabilities for data collection, storage, and analysis, as well as allow for counteractions against threats like sabotage and cyberattacks. Selen stated that amid geopolitical instability, there is a pressing need for robust security systems. Jäger added that if granted these powers, they would be utilized, and adversaries would face consequences.
Critics, however, caution against the potential blurring of lines between intelligence gathering and police action. Konstantin von Notz, a member of the opposition environmentalist Greens, has called for increased oversight of intelligence services, anticipating that the Federal Constitutional Court will review the proposed expansion of their powers.