<p>Various branches of the Israeli government are warning that Hamas has prepared for an attack on the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023, massacre, but experts suggest a significant offensive from the group would be challenging.</p>
<p>The Israeli National Security Council issued a travel advisory on Tuesday, warning of an "increased threat of attempts to harm Israelis and Jews abroad, alongside demonstrations and riots." The NSC requested the public refrain from posting about travel on social media, avoid destinations of concern such as Jordan and Qatar, and not participate in any "demonstrations and large gatherings." </p>
<p>"Terrorist organizations, and particularly Iran and its proxies, Hamas, and Global Jihad factions, see this date as a significant milestone," the council stated.</p>
<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting Tuesday with members of his Cabinet, repeating his warning that Hamas may attack Israel to influence its elections.</p>
<p>"Because Hamas is so weak, it will try to challenge us with the remnants of its forces ahead of the election in an attempt to influence it," Netanyahu said. "We are prepared for this. First and foremost, we will thwart such attempts, and in any event, we will respond with overwhelming force if they make that mistake."</p>
<p>David Zini, the director of Israel’s counterintelligence service, Shin Bet, claimed at the meeting that his intelligence officials have observed "very worrying" indicators of terrorist activities among Bedouin enclaves in southern Israel.</p>
<p>Defense Minister Israel Katz emphasized the need for preparations for a potential attack by jihadist elements in the West Bank against settlers and Israeli soldiers, citing lessons from the events of October 7.</p>
<p>Katz warned that such a scenario could lead to a "short and forceful war with a clear decision and a change in the reality" including "large-scale evacuation of residents and destruction of terror infrastructure inside the cities and in all refugee camps."</p>
<p>The Defense Ministry has instructed military personnel inside Gaza to operate on high alert through October 7 in light of intelligence regarding Hamas’s intentions to launch attacks against Israeli forces in the area on that day.</p>
<p>Brian Carter, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute specializing in terrorism and the Middle East, stated that there is a heightened threat due to the anniversary. "The heightened threat comes from the anniversary, and that’s true of so many of these terrorist groups — look at al Qaeda every year around 9/11," Carter said. "There is heightened concern about the risk of attacks, and that heightened concern is warranted. But it’s also a matter of ‘What can Hamas do in its … presently degraded state?’ And the answer to that is I just don’t think it’s that much."</p>
<p>Carter noted that while Hamas still has the "latent capability" to plan "one-off attacks," including shootings, he doubts it has the logistical capacity to conduct an attack from the Gaza Strip at this time. "I think [an attack in the West Bank] is far more likely than Gaza," he said.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has maintained an alarmist attitude since last month, when he released a campaign video on an Israeli air base warning that the nation’s enemies would stage an attack to disrupt the election.</p>
<p>"There are signs that leading up to the elections, our enemies will try to attack us," Netanyahu said in the video. "I am sending [enemies] a message: Don’t mess with us. Our long arm will reach you anywhere and at any time."</p>
<p>Netanyahu and his allies took credit for a warning following the attempted hijacking of a Flydubai airplane by an Omani pilot, which was ultimately thwarted. However, opposition leader Yair Lapid stated that the information conveyed to him about pre-election threats had no relation to the incident.</p>
<p>The October 27 elections are viewed as a close contest between an alliance led by Netanyahu and one led by rival Gadi Eisenkot. Neither bloc is polling at levels that would allow them to form a government without support from Arab parties, which could become key players in the outcome.</p>