Impact of October 7 Attacks on 2028 Democratic Presidential Race

On the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, attitudes toward Israel and Gaza have increasingly divided the Democratic Party and are likely to play a significant role in the party’s 2028 presidential primary.

Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who is considering a 2028 presidential bid, stated this week that America is ready to elect its first Jewish president while challenging Democrats who want to cut U.S. military support for Israel to explain their broader Middle East strategy.

Emanuel has positioned himself as a centrist voice, arguing that Democrats need to balance Israel’s security, Palestinian statehood, and a larger regional peace strategy.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img alt="Rahm Emanuel." class="wp-image-4756435" height="682" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/rahm-emanuel-israel.jpg?w=696" width="1024" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Rahm Emanuel, a potential Democratic presidential candidate and longtime defender of Israel, speaks at Tel Aviv University, Israel, July 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File) </figcaption></figure>

This issue places him in the path of a potential 2028 field that could include Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA), one of the Democratic Party’s most prominent Jewish politicians and a staunch supporter of Israel, as well as candidates with more critical views of Israel. Shapiro is currently debating his Republican gubernatorial opponent, Stacy Garrity, on the third anniversary of the attacks.

On the other end of the Democratic spectrum are figures like Michigan Senate nominee Abdul el Sayed, who has faced sustained pressure from Jewish leaders regarding his views on Israel and U.S. military aid. The Democratic Socialists of America, a significant storyline in this election cycle, has come under scrutiny for its attitudes toward Israel and Zionism.

The case of el Sayed illustrates how sensitive the issue has become for Democrats running in the 2026 midterm elections and offers a preview of potential conflicts in the 2028 primary. The party is still recovering after the Uncommitted Movement, a group largely composed of Arab American voters dissatisfied with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict, declined to support former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, arguably costing her crucial states, particularly Michigan, in her election battle with President Donald Trump.

“Israel has become a real fault line inside the Democratic Party because the disagreement now reaches voters, elected officials, donors, activists, universities, and party organizations,” Irina Tsukerman, a geopolitical analyst and president of Scarab Rising, stated. “Younger Democrats have moved especially far from the older Democratic consensus on Israel. Arab and Muslim Democrats have also become more willing to punish candidates over Gaza, while progressive organizations have made arms sales and military aid part of primary politics.”

Dave Spencer, a political analyst, noted that Israel has become a significant fault line for the party’s progressive and socialist wing, including voters who could support candidates like el Sayed.

“For most Democrats, it is an issue without necessarily being a defining issue,” Spencer told the Washington Examiner.

One reason, Spencer explained, is that many Democrats who remain supportive of Israel have become critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.

The outcome of Israel’s next election on October 27, as well as developments in Gaza leading up to 2028, could significantly impact the politics of the issue in the United States.

“If Netanyahu loses and there is a change in Israeli leadership and the war in Gaza changes course, Israel could become a less defining political issue by 2028,” Spencer said.

Michael Fahey, another political analyst, sees a more fundamental shift.

“I think October 7 and everything that has happened since has fundamentally changed the politics of Israel inside the Democratic Party,” Fahey stated. “This isn’t just a small group of activists making noise anymore.”

Fahey pointed to a measurable shift among younger and more progressive Democratic voters, arguing that any candidate considering a 2028 presidential campaign will need to account for this change.

At the same time, he cautioned against assuming that the most vocal activists represent the entire Democratic electorate.

“A presidential primary is a coalition-building exercise,” Fahey said. “Jewish voters remain an important part of that coalition, as do Arab American and Muslim voters, progressives, moderates, and voters who may have deep concerns about the conduct of the war but still believe strongly in Israel’s right to exist and defend itself.”

This creates a complicated political calculation for potential candidates like Shapiro.

The Pennsylvania governor’s Jewish identity and strong support for Israel could provide credibility with Jewish voters and Democrats who favor maintaining the U.S.-Israel alliance. However, those same positions could make him a target for progressive activists who have become increasingly critical of Israel and U.S. military assistance.

“I don’t think being Jewish or supportive of Israel is inherently a liability in a Democratic primary,” Fahey said. “But the old political language around Israel probably isn’t enough anymore.”

Candidates like Shapiro and Emanuel will need to clarify what support for Israel means after October 7, the war in Gaza, and years of civilian suffering, Fahey stated.

Candidates further to the left will face their own challenges.

“Opposing military aid is a position. It isn’t, by itself, a Middle East policy,” Fahey said.

This distinction could become increasingly important as Democrats debate whether the U.S. should continue military assistance to Israel, condition that assistance, or end it altogether.

For Tsukerman, the political impact will vary significantly depending on where candidates are campaigning.

“The electoral effect still depends heavily on who votes and where,” she said. “A Democrat in Michigan may encounter organized pressure over Gaza that a Democrat running elsewhere never experiences at the same level.”

This dynamic is already visible in Michigan, where el Sayed has faced questions about his views on Israel, Hamas, and U.S. aid.

The issue also extends beyond traditional foreign policy. In New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) has sought to distinguish between criticism of Israel and antisemitism while prioritizing the fight against antisemitism in City Hall. However, Mamdani’s stance towards Israel has repeatedly been questioned, to the extent that Israel’s Consul General in New York, Ofir Akunis, has invited the mayor to view a film documenting the October 7 attack, stating he would see “for the first time, what the people he supports really did.” His invitation comes as several left-wing groups have promoted an anti-Zionist “resistance” rally outside City Hall on Wednesday.

Political analyst James Christopher noted that the Democratic debate has become more complicated since October 7 as the war has reshaped the region and more Democrats have separated criticism of Israel from accusations of being “pro-Hamas.”

However, Christopher stated that Israel is only one aspect of a larger transformation within the Democratic coalition.

“The Democratic divide has become much bigger than Israel,” he said, pointing to the rise of the DSA and the growing influence of the party’s left flank.

“Treating Democrats as monolithic on Israel — or much of anything else — misses the political realignment happening in plain sight,” Christopher said.

Spencer similarly cautioned that the issue’s ultimate importance in 2028 will depend on developments over the next two years.

“If the situation remains largely unchanged, yes, Israel could become a significant issue in the Democratic primary,” he said.

But if Israeli leadership changes or the war in Gaza takes a dramatically different turn, the political landscape could look very different by the time Democrats begin choosing their presidential nominee. If that occurs, the party could face larger questions about its identity.

“I don’t think the successful candidate can simply be ‘pro-Israel’ or ‘anti-Israel,’” Fahey said. “Voters are going to demand more nuance than that.”

He added that the candidate who navigates the issue successfully will have to argue that Israel has a right to exist and be secure, Palestinians have a right to dignity, security, and self-determination, and American support for Israel “is not a blank check.”

That could make Israel one of the most revealing tests of the 2028 Democratic primary.

“It won’t just tell us where Democrats stand on Israel,” Fahey said. “It will tell us a lot about what kind of Democratic Party emerges from this decade.”

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