Netanyahu Faces Accountability Over Oct. 7 Attacks Ahead of Israeli Election

<p>Israel is observing the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 terror attacks, occurring three weeks before an election where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's accountability for the country's significant security failure will be a central issue.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Netanyahu appears politically vulnerable following the Oct. 7 attacks, yet he has managed to maintain his government amid ongoing conflicts and a state of emergency. Current polls indicate a competitive race, suggesting a potential path for Netanyahu to retain his position.</p><hr /><ul><li>However, the events of Oct. 7 continue to impact both the nation and his candidacy. The opposition criticizes him for not accepting responsibility or permitting an independent investigation into the Hamas attacks that resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities.</li><li>All other senior national security officials in office during the attacks have resigned, except for Netanyahu.</li><li>Netanyahu's main challenger, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, lost family members during the Gaza conflict. Sources close to Eisenkot indicate he aims to replace Netanyahu, whom he holds responsible for the Oct. 7 attacks.</li></ul><p><strong>Netanyahu's Position:</strong> Netanyahu attributes blame to the deep state.</p><ul><li>His political allies and his wife, Sara, have circulated conspiracy theories suggesting that Israel was betrayed by its own security leaders.</li><li>Netanyahu has claimed that these security officials intentionally kept him uninformed and suggested he could have averted the tragedy if they had alerted him to early warning signs.</li></ul><p><strong>Recent Developments:</strong> New reports indicate that Netanyahu received some warnings prior to the attacks.</p><ul><li>Haaretz reported that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu days before the attacks about Hamas's plans. Sources confirmed to Axios that UAE intelligence provided a general warning to Israeli officials, and that MBZ communicated directly with Netanyahu to ensure he was informed. A former U.S. official stated that then-CIA Director Bill Burns was informed months later by MBZ about the warning given to Netanyahu.</li><li>Other media, including the New York Times, have corroborated this information.</li><li>The Atlantic and the Wall Street Journal also reported that Netanyahu received a similar warning from Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel.</li><li>Netanyahu has denied receiving warnings from either the UAE or Egypt and has initiated legal action against several media outlets and journalists who reported otherwise.</li></ul><p><strong>Context:</strong> Despite the discussions surrounding these warnings, the three years following Oct. 7 have seen significant events, including the destruction in Gaza, the release of hostages, and conflicts with Hezbollah and Iran, providing Netanyahu with opportunities to rehabilitate his image as a decisive leader.</p><p><strong>Polling Data:</strong> Most polls indicate that Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to secure 20-22 seats in the Knesset, a decrease from 32, while his right-wing coalition is expected to obtain 50-54 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority.</p><ul><li>The opposition is also unlikely to achieve a majority without support from Arab-Israeli parties, projected to win a combined 12-14 seats.</li><li>Polls from Netanyahu-aligned Channel 14 predict a potential 63-seat majority for him and his coalition.</li><li>Netanyahu has pressured his main opposition to exclude forming a coalition with Arab-Israeli parties, which could hinder Eisenkot's chances of gaining power, although he might attempt to form a minority government.</li><li>One possible outcome, if the polls hold true, is a hung parliament, allowing Netanyahu to remain as a caretaker prime minister until another election is called.</li></ul><p><strong>Implications of the Election:</strong> The election results could significantly impact Netanyahu's political future and his ongoing corruption trial.</p><ul><li>Should he lose power, he would lose the ability to influence or delay the trial proceedings.</li><li>If he wins, Netanyahu could argue that he has been vindicated by the electorate and take measures to impede the legal process.</li></ul><p><strong>Political Dynamics:</strong> Former President Trump could potentially support Netanyahu with an endorsement, but he has not yet done so.</p><ul><li>When asked about his support for Netanyahu, Trump has avoided the question but expressed skepticism regarding reports that MBZ warned Netanyahu.</li><li>Trump has privately criticized Netanyahu for the failures surrounding Oct. 7 and has suggested that Netanyahu has harmed Israel's international standing.</li><li>Despite this, Trump has remained close to Netanyahu during the conflict with Iran and may still endorse him.</li></ul><p><strong>What to Monitor:</strong> Israel's election is scheduled for one week before the U.S. midterms. Should Democrats regain control of one or both houses of Congress, it could lead to discussions regarding arms sales to Israel and the future of $3.8 billion in annual military assistance.</p><ul><li>The nature of this debate may be influenced by whether Netanyahu continues in office.</li></ul>