The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet, but this is expected to change this week. Tropical Storm Isaias is projected to become the season’s first hurricane before making landfall between Mississippi and Florida by the weekend.
El Niño has affected the Atlantic basin by altering high-altitude winds, which disrupt storm formation. This has contributed to a significant decrease in tropical cyclone activity, leading to no hurricanes so far this season.
Currently, Isaias is located in the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 65 mph, according to the latest update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm is anticipated to pass over warm waters, which could enable it to strengthen into a hurricane. It may reach a peak intensity of a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph as it moves northeast. However, it is expected to weaken due to high-altitude winds before making landfall along the Gulf Coast.
The NHC has issued hurricane watches for the coastlines of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as parts of the Florida Panhandle, with tropical storm watches extending into Louisiana. Residents in these areas can expect rainfall totals of up to 7 inches, with some locations in the Panhandle potentially receiving up to 10 inches and storm surge reaching as high as 7 feet. Tornadoes may also occur.
Isaias could set a record as the latest first Atlantic hurricane to form, with the current record dating back to 1905, when the first hurricane formed on October 8. An update on Isaias is scheduled for Wednesday, which may affect its historical status.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season was initially forecasted to be below average, but it has been quieter than expected due to a strong El Niño, which has been informally referred to as “super,” “Godzilla,” and “supersized.” The strength of this El Niño is measured by ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which have reached record highs this summer and early fall.
The intensity of El Niño has influenced atmospheric conditions globally, including over the Atlantic. Additionally, Saharan dust has contributed to reduced hurricane activity by making the air in key development areas too dry.
Historically, from 1991 to 2020, the Atlantic basin averaged 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) annually, according to NHC data. So far this year, there have been eight tropical storms and one hurricane.
Another way to assess the season is through accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which accounts for the number, intensity, and duration of storms. The ACE for 2026 is currently 10.8 units, while the average for this time of year is nearly 102, based on data from Colorado State University. Most ACE typically accumulates from mid-August through late September.
While it is possible for another storm to develop in the coming weeks, the ongoing intensification of El Niño and the peak of the hurricane season being past suggest that the likelihood of a sudden increase in activity is low.