Belarus-linked incidents are causing concern in Latvia and Lithuania, where experts warn of security challenges. On Monday, masked and armed individuals attempted to cross into Latvia from Belarus, accompanied by 20 undocumented migrants. Janis Dombrava, Latvia’s interior minister, stated on Tuesday that the armed escorts of the illegal migrants, located on the Belarusian side, issued threats to soldiers and urged the migrant group toward Latvia.
Later, masked individuals successfully entered Latvia, where they destroyed an electrical box and stole surveillance cameras before returning to Belarus. Latvian officials described this as an act of sabotage orchestrated by Belarus, though it remains unclear if the same masked individuals were involved in both incidents. Dombrava noted that this provocation was particularly demonstrative and aggressive compared to previous incidents.
Since 2021, Belarus, an ally of Russia, has utilized migration as a tool to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank, which includes borders with Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Latvia is viewed as Europe’s weakest link. Bartosz Chmielewski, a Baltics expert from the Poland-based Centre for Eastern Studies, mentioned that the crisis at the EU border with Belarus has persisted for five years, with a noticeable deterioration in the situation in Latvia since May of this year. He reported that border violations have surged, with 12,000 incidents recorded in September and October, matching the total for the entire previous year.
Olevs Nikers, president of the Baltic Security Foundation in Latvia, indicated that a surge similar to the recent crossing of tens of thousands from Morocco to Spain is physically possible, and planning for it is necessary. He suggested that sustained low-level pressure might be a more effective strategy, creating exhaustion and friction among allies. He pointed out that while Lithuania’s border with Belarus is four times longer than Latvia’s 173 km (107 miles), the pressure has been concentrated in Latvia.
Nikers argued that the migration pressure from Belarus could lead to bureaucratic chaos, as Latvia, with a population of 1.8 million, would struggle to provide necessary reception, processing, and medical aid to potential asylum seekers. In 2021, nearly 40,000 individuals attempted to cross from Belarus into Poland, with many more undocumented crossings likely unrecorded.
Before the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022, Belarus had established a system to facilitate migration into the EU, targeting individuals from the Global South. Although this system has been dismantled, Belarus continues to exert migration pressure when possible.
Nikers warned that a sudden influx of several thousand people into Latgale during winter would pose both humanitarian and political challenges. Experts believe that Latvia is currently the least prepared among NATO’s eastern flank countries for provocations from the east. Chmielewski noted that Latvia has been sidelined as pressure previously focused on Poland and Lithuania, but now finds itself unprepared with inadequate border infrastructure and dwindling resources for border guards.
He added that Latvia struggles to execute major infrastructure projects and has been unable to complete necessary border infrastructure due to challenging terrain and limited operational capacity.
Some experts suggest that the migration pressure from Belarus may also be a reaction to recent political developments in Latvia, where a coalition led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs has maintained sanctions against Belarus. Marta Jaroszewicz, an assistant professor at the University of Warsaw’s Centre of Migration Research, stated that Belarus uses both incentives and threats to demonstrate its ability to destabilize the Baltics.
The ongoing pressure from Russia and Belarus on the EU has evolved, with migration being just one tactic among others, including disinformation and infrastructure targeting. Nikers noted that the focus has shifted to critical infrastructure and airspace, with Russia increasingly operating below the Article 5 threshold of NATO.
Chmielewski emphasized that the solidarity of European nations is what deters Russia from aggressive actions on the eastern flank, and any brazen provocation could unite the EU in response.