Analysts indicate that a victory for the opposition in the upcoming October 27 elections may result in only marginal changes regarding policies affecting Gaza and the West Bank. Four Israeli political factions—the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Together alliance—have formed a coalition to challenge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been in office for an extended period. The opposition parties, which represent various segments of the political spectrum, aim to 'preserve and strengthen Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.'
Recent polling suggests a close contest between the opposition coalition and Netanyahu's pro-coalition, with neither side likely to secure a parliamentary majority. The elections occur amid significant domestic issues, including political accountability for alleged corruption, disputes over military service among ultra-Orthodox citizens, and the exclusion of Arab parties from political processes. Additionally, Israel faces increasing international criticism regarding its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as its settlement policies, which are deemed illegal under international law.
Despite the potential for a change in leadership, analysts caution that the opposition may not significantly alter the status quo for Palestinians, who are currently experiencing high levels of violence and displacement. Samer Jaber, a doctoral researcher at Royal Holloway, University of London, stated, 'Palestinians should not expect a fundamental change in Israeli policy if the Netanyahu bloc loses power.' He noted that major political factions share similar views on the Palestinian issue, including support for existing settlement structures.
On September 26, leaders of the four opposition parties convened and signed a declaration committing to avoid attacking each other during the election campaign and to collaborate on forming a government post-election. The meeting included prominent figures such as Yair Lapid, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Yair Golan. While Eisenkot is viewed as a likely candidate for prime minister, the coalition does not designate an official leader.
Current projections suggest that Yashar may emerge as the strongest party, potentially winning 23 seats in the Knesset, compared to 21 seats for Netanyahu's Likud party. The Together alliance is expected to secure 13 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats are projected to win nine seats each. This would result in a combined total of 54 seats for the opposition in the 120-seat Knesset, falling short of a majority.
Arab-led parties, representing approximately 20% of Israel's population, are projected to win 13 seats, but leaders of the Jewish-led opposition have largely ruled out forming alliances with them. Analysts suggest that the anti-Netanyahu coalition could succeed if voter turnout is favorable, as some parties may fail to meet the threshold required to enter the Knesset.
Even if the opposition manages to oust Netanyahu, analysts believe that any new government would likely be weak and unable to implement substantial changes to Israeli policy in the West Bank and Gaza. Anders Persson, a political scientist specializing in the Israel-Palestine conflict, noted that an anti-Netanyahu government would likely be a coalition with a thin majority, complicating the possibility of significant concessions.
The leaders of the opposition coalition have expressed hardline views on Gaza and the West Bank, which offer little hope for Palestinians. Eisenkot has labeled the idea of a Palestinian state as 'delusional' and supports the strengthening of Israeli settlements, while Bennett has advocated for strict measures against Palestinians. Lieberman supports settlement expansion and annexation of parts of the West Bank, while Golan's Democrats party is the only one to advocate for a form of two-state solution, albeit with stringent conditions.
Public sentiment in Israel reflects a hardening stance on the Palestinian issue, with a Pew Research Center poll indicating that only 17% of Israeli respondents believe peaceful coexistence alongside an independent Palestinian state is achievable.
Despite the challenges, some analysts suggest that a new government could slow down or reverse some of the more controversial policies of the current administration. Dov Waxman, a political science professor at UCLA, mentioned that changes could include suspending the E1 settlement project and improving humanitarian aid access to Gaza.
Ehab Jabareen, a Palestinian political analyst, expressed that a new government might be more open to international pressure, potentially allowing for reconstruction efforts in Gaza. However, he emphasized that any changes would likely be more about the management of control rather than a fundamental shift in Israel's approach to Palestinians. Amjad Iraqi from the International Crisis Group noted that while significant changes are unlikely, even minor improvements could have meaningful impacts on the lives of Palestinians suffering from ongoing violence.